In November 2025, climate negotiators will descend on the tropical city of Bel茅m in Brazil, gateway to the Amazon rainforest, for the next round of UN climate talks. Despite the exotic location, delegates are unlikely to be in high spirits. The 2024 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, ended with a fragile agreement on climate financing that left many lower-income nations disappointed and some in open revolt.
For Brazil, the first task as COP30 host will be to calm tempers and smooth tensions after the quarrelsome atmosphere of Baku. It is no mean feat given years of strained relations between wealthier nations and their poorer counterparts.
But Brazil has experience in this field, says at the University of Cambridge. In 1992, it hosted the Rio Earth Summit, a landmark meeting that brought countries together to establish the COP (conference of the parties) process under the UN. Brazil has 鈥渧ast diplomatic and climate change experience and huge credibility in the international community鈥�, says Depledge.
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More collaboration will be desperately needed at the summit if the world is to avoid runaway climate change. Countries have until February to submit new climate plans to the UN, detailing how they will cut emissions from now to 2035. The hope is that the new plans will help to close the gap between the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit warming to between 1.5掳C and 2掳C, and the 2.6-3.1掳C for by the end of the century under current climate plans.
Virtually no one believes the new plans will be ambitious enough to meet a 1.5掳C pathway, says at London-based think tank E3G. A UN synthesis report, due for release a few weeks before COP30 kicks off, will confirm how far off target the world remains. The challenge for the COP host is how to 鈥渟queeze out more ambition鈥� during the summit, says Meyer. 鈥淲e know already we are going to fall short鈥� so there鈥檚 two things you can do. You can either give up鈥� or you can say 鈥楴o, that鈥檚 not our final answer,'鈥� he says.
One route to do that would be to focus on building up multinational partnerships on issues such as deforestation, electric vehicles and methane emission reduction. There could also be more emphasis on the work of states and cities to drive emissions cuts in their local jurisdictions, says Meyer.
鈥淭he theory is if you can get more happening on the ground in terms of actual emission reductions, countries might be willing to adjust upwards the ambition of their pledges,鈥� he says.
Money will be crucial to unlocking more ambition from lower-income nations. Disappointed at the lack of direct aid on offer from wealthier nations, they agreed to the COP29 package in Baku in part on the promise the next meeting would draw up a 鈥渞oad map鈥� detailing how public and private sources would deliver the climate finance goal of $1.3 trillion per year. Ideas on the table include reform of multilateral development banks, taxes on aviation and shipping and levies on fossil fuels. Demonstrable progress in this area will be crucial if Brazil鈥檚 goal of collaboration and cooperation is to be realised.
Geopolitics provides an additional challenge. COP29 was notable for the obstructionist behaviour of a small group of nations, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, that sought to block any calls for a global shift away from fossil fuels. Experts expect this to continue. 鈥淭here will be a concerted effort to block any meaningful decisions in Bel茅m on mitigation ambition, especially the transition away from fossil fuels,鈥� says Meyer.
Meanwhile, incoming US president Donald Trump has vowed to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement when he takes office in January, but the move takes a year to come into effect, meaning the US will remain an unwilling party to the negotiations in Bel茅m.
It isn鈥檛 clear how a Trump administration will behave in the climate talks, says Meyer. During Trump鈥檚 first term in office, US negotiators stayed relatively quiet during COP meetings. But this time around there is a risk, Meyer warns, that the US could form a 鈥渃oalition of the unwilling鈥� with other obstructionist parties to block action on topics such as phasing out fossil fuels. 鈥淭hat obviously could raise concerns, because the US is a pretty big player in this process,鈥� he says.
Much hope for a brighter future is riding on a successful COP30. But we would do well to remember that COPs can deliver only so much, says Meyer. 鈥淭he problem is back in capitals, in terms of political will, leadership, the power of the fossil fuel industry,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not bringing enough to the table at these meetings in terms of political will and ambition. That鈥檚 what has really got to change.鈥�
