After a long and fraught night of talks, COP29 in Baku finally concluded in the early hours of 24 November with a deal that will see wealthier countries funnel billions of dollars to poorer countries over the next decade to pay for climate action. Despite the high numbers involved, it is a deal that seemingly pleases no one, and has called the entire COP climate summit process into question.
The finance deal was the main focus of the meeting in Azerbaijan’s capital, with lower-income countries lobbying for $500 billion a year of support from higher-income countries. Negotiations were tense, as nations contending with inflation, strained domestic budgets and political instability balked at such a large spending commitment. At one point during the final stretch, talks looked on the brink of collapse as poorer nations walked out of discussions.
Eventually, nations reluctantly agreed on a package that would see wealthier countries pay at least $300 billion a year in grants and low-interest loans to poorer nations by 2035, as part of a wider target to mobilise $1.3 trillion in climate finance a year. The source of the extra $1 trillion has not been agreed, but could include private investment.
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Speaking at the summit, COP President said the package was the “best possible deal we could reach”. at the Inter-American Development Bank said the deal was “at the boundary between what is politically achievable today in developed countries and what would make a difference in developing countries”.
But the agreement was widely condemned both by poorer nations and campaigners as inadequate to meet the scale of need facing these countries, which are grappling with the twin challenges of building zero emission economies and coping with increasingly extreme weather.
Moments after the deal was gavelled through by Babayev, India’s representative Chandni Raina delivered fierce criticism of the package, which she said her country didn’t support. “We are disappointed in the outcome which clearly brings out the unwillingness of the developed country parties to fulfil their responsibilities,” she said. “This, in our opinion, will not address the enormity of the challenge we all face.”
India, which will receive funding under the deal, is one of dozens of high-emitting nations that needs to submit a fresh climate plan to the UN by 2025, ahead of next year’s talks in Brazil. Its emissions are set to grow by 4.6 per cent this year, and its current plan to cut emissions is by Climate Action Tracker, an independent body that assesses governments’ climate plans.
Limiting warming to between 1.5ºC and 2ºC, as set out in the Paris Agreement, depends on countries like India submitting much bolder carbon cutting plans – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – to the UN in February. Campaigners had hoped a successful agreement to provide more cash for poorer countries would unlock more ambition from these nations.
The disagreements over finance in Baku have left delegates heading home with a bitter taste in their mouth, and already poorer countries are warning the deal does little to build enthusiasm for further ambition. “We are extremely disappointed in the outcome, which undermines any goal of having ambitious NDCs and signals a lack of goodwill by developed countries,” Sierra Leone’s environment minister said in a statement.
The often chaotic scenes in Baku, run by a Presidency with little experience in climate negotiations and extensive fossil fuel interests, has also raised wider questions about the future of UN climate summits. During the meeting an signed by COP veterans, including former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, was released calling for the climate meetings to become more “streamlined”, with a greater focus on delivering carbon cutting policies. The letter also called for hosting rules to be tightened, to only allow those countries taking ambitious climate action to hold the Presidency.
It will be up to the Brazilian government to quell disquiet when it hosts COP30 in Belem next year. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as a “turnaround COP”, with a focus on accelerating the transition to net zero emissions and fleshing out the details of the finance commitment made in Baku.
Brazil will also have to repair faith in the COP process as a vehicle for driving action. That will require curtailing the influence of fossil fuel lobbyists at the meeting, and facing down obstructionist nations such as Saudi Arabia, which was widely accused of spending the fortnight in Baku attempting to weaken agreements on carbon cuts.
The pressure is now building on the next Presidency to reset the process, according to of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a US think tank. “This COP process needs to recover from Baku,” he said in a statement. “It requires more leadership to deliver an outcome in line with 1.5ºC next year in Brazil.”
