Hopes of a strong stance from COP28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber on phasing out the production and use of fossil fuels have been dashed at the climate summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. A draft agreement on the worldâs approach to fossil fuels includes no mention of phasing out the primary source of the greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change, leaving negotiators with only a day or so to reach a compromise across a divide even wider than expected.
Over the past two weeks, drafts of the agreement laid out a suite of options on how countries might address fossil fuels. These ranged from not mentioning them at all, to a phase-out of fossil fuels in line with the Paris agreement target to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Another option, for which China had signalled its support, was to agree to triple renewable energy capacity explicitly as a substitute for fossil energy.
Other countries and groups â including the US, UK and European Union â have said they support a phase-out of âunabatedâ fossil fuels, which is generally understood to mean use of the fuels without carbon capture and storage systems in place.
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Lobbying for an unqualified end to the fossil fuel era has met staunch opposition from oil-producing states dependent on oil and gas revenues, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as well as other low-income countries who see producing and using fossil fuels as central to their future economic development. But countries and observers aiming for a strong agreement on phasing out fossil fuels were buoyed by Al Jaberâs promises that the United Nationsâs 28th conference on climate change would be a historic one, even as he has faced scrutiny over his views, given his position as CEO of the UAEâs largest oil company.
However, after long hours of waiting on 11 December, many of these groups were shocked and dismayed when they received the of the core agreement to find it included no reference to a phase-out. The text of the new draft was decided by Al Jaber, whose job it is to find compromise among countries before a final round of negotiations.
âThis is a broken promise,â says at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, a think tank headquartered in Canada.
How countries might reach a compromise on the future of fossil fuels is now the biggest remaining question in the final 24 hours of COP28.
âWe will not sign our death certificate,â , the environment minister of Samoa, said in an emotional press conference, on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States, for whom rising seas due to climate change are an existential threat. âWe cannot sign on to a text that does not have strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels.â
The draft agreement makes no reference to a fossil fuel phase-out, in favour of a âmenuâ for countries to choose from to reduce their emissions, says at UK energy think tank Ember. One of these options is to reduce âboth consumption and production of fossil fuelsâ in a way that achieves net zero by 2050, but observers arenât persuaded this is enough.
âInstead of taking us closer to a fossil-free future, this draft takes a giant step backwards,â says at ActionAid, an international humanitarian nonprofit. âItâs staggeringly empty of any new commitments.â
However, the simple fact that the text makes explicit reference to reducing fossil fuel use is a significant advance from previous summits, says at Power Shift Africa, an energy think tank in Kenya. âWe are cooking a fossil-[fuel]-free meal here in Dubai,â says Adow. âPeople will argue if itâs the correct recipe, but the main thing is that all the right ingredients are there.â
Negotiators now have the next day or so to work out these wide differences if they are to adopt an agreement at COP28, which must be agreed unanimously by countries.
The draft represents âa huge step forwardâ, Al Jaber said in a statement released after a press conference in which he was set to comment on the new agreement was cancelled. âNow it is in the hands of the Parties, who we trust to do what is best for humanity and the planet.â
Adow says one way they might find compromise is to recognise different responsibilities for high- and low-income countries for an energy transition, as well as include a commitment of support to help oil-producing states diversify their economies and build clean energy. âFairness is key to this energy transition,â he says.
