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COP28: Why a climate adaptation deal is a ‘matter of life or death’

Supporting people and countries that are already experiencing devastation from climate change must be a key part of COP28 agreements, on top of a potential deal to phase out fossil fuels, say politicians and campaigners
Collins Nzovu, Zambia’s minister of green economy and environment, speaking at COP28
Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

The countries most vulnerable to climate change say the world must do far more to help them adapt to rising temperatures and extreme weather, even as it races to slash greenhouse gas emissions, in what has emerged as a key issue in the negotiations at the COP28 climate summit under way in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

“Adaptation is a matter of life and death for Africa,” said Collins Nzovu, Zambia’s minister of green economy and environment, at a press event at the summit, pointing to deadly flooding in Malawi, and years of drought that have pushed parts of the Horn of Africa to the brink of famine.

Speaking on behalf of the African Group of countries, he said a strong agreement on adaptation was “the most important outcome for Africa at COP28”.

Other countries vulnerable to climate change have said that adaptation is a top priority at the summit, which has so far been dominated by debates about the future of fossil fuels and scaling up renewable energy to cut emissions. While vulnerable countries stress the need to reduce emissions to avoid future warming, they say this wouldn’t address the climate impacts already under way.

“Adaptation is needed right now because the climate has already changed,” said Colombia’s environment minister, María Susana Muhamad González, at another event, adding that adaptation is the most important issue for Latin American countries at the talks.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that 40 per cent of people live in areas that are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, whether from extreme heat, deeper drought or more intense storms.

Despite its importance to preventing more loss and damage due to climate change, adaptation has long been the neglected “Cinderella of the climate negotiations”, says at Fauna and Flora, an environmental advocacy group.

Financial support for adaptation projects is lacking. A UN released ahead of COP28 found that between $215 billion and $387 billion per year is needed to finance climate adaptation in lower-income countries, which is 10 times higher than current levels of support. At COP26 in Glasgow, UK, in 2021, countries agreed to double their support for adaptation by 2025, but meeting this pledge would still leave a wide gap.

Even agreeing to what it means to adapt to climate change has proven difficult for negotiators, in part because of the complexity of the issue. Adaptation might involve everything from improving weather forecasting and strengthening bridges and dams to protecting mangrove forests to reduce flooding. Such highly local schemes are hard to capture in global or even national plans.

Many countries and observers are now pushing for an agreement at COP28 that would offer clear targets for adaptation and the funding and support to achieve them. This would take the form of a new framework for the “global goal on adaptation” set under the Paris Agreement in 2015, which committed countries to addressing adaptation, but only in vague terms.

Early on the morning of 10 December, delegates to COP28 got the first view of negotiators’ efforts to reach a consensus on adaptation so far. The draft lays out steps for countries to adapt to climate change, including by making food, water and health systems more resilient, and doing more to protect ecosystems and infrastructure. It also sets a deadline of 2025 for countries to have national adaptation plans, and to have made progress on implementing them by 2030.

Observers at the summit applauded the fact that negotiators had moved closer to a compromise, but said the agreement still lacked concrete targets and left it unclear how any of its aims would be funded. “It’s lacking the ambition. It’s lacking the targets,” says at Christian Aid, a humanitarian advocacy group. “It’s disappointing, for Africa in particular.”

Alice Soewito at The Nature Conservancy says developing more specific targets for some of the areas where adaptation is needed — such as health — will take more time, but that the targets on protecting nature could adopt some of the same metrics agreed at the COP15 biodiversity summit in Montreal, Canada, last year, such as the goal to protect 30 per cent of the planet’s oceans and land by 2030.

, who is leading negotiations on adaptation on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States – for which rising seas and stronger storms due to climate change are an existential threat – says that countries at COP28 have been split so far on how any targets should be quantified and tracked, and how adaptation measures should be financed.

There is also some speculation about countries using support for adaptation as a bargaining chip for negotiations elsewhere on phasing out fossil fuels. For instance, Saudi Arabia – which has worked to block language on fossil fuels in any agreement – has delayed support for adaptation to make it harder for lower-income countries to join a wider deal, according to a by The New York Times. John Silk, a minister from the Marshall Islands, told èƵ he sensed “there is a hold up” due to this issue.

Nonetheless, Ibrahim says countries “on both sides” are committed to reaching an agreement on adaptation. “We don’t want to go back home to our islands and say, ‘Yeah, we have had a good time the past few years. We had good discussions,’” he says. “That’s not enough.”

Topics: Climate change / COP28