Researchers have poured cold water on the idea that new emissions plans put forward for COP26 in Glasgow set the world on track to meet targets to limit dangerous global warming.
Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent, non-profit scientific body based in Germany, said today that governmental pledges to curb carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 were 鈥渢otally inadequate鈥� and would lead to emissions roughly double the level needed to hold the temperature rise to 1.5掳C this century.
The shows that looking only at new country-level targets for 2030, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the world will warm by 2.4掳C on average. That is better than the 2.7掳C of warming projected before the meeting started in Glasgow, but a far cry from the agreement that 195 countries made in Paris in 2015 to keep warming 鈥渨ell below鈥� 2掳C and 鈥減ursue efforts鈥� for 1.5掳C .
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The 2.4掳C projection also offers a far more sobering view of how much the Glasgow summit has shifted the dial on future temperatures than three rapid analyses last week, by the , the and a University of Melbourne team. Those variously suggested that the latest NDCs put the world on a path for warming as low as 1.8掳C to 1.9掳C.
鈥淭he CAT report is a timely cold shower of reality,鈥� says at the University of Leeds in the UK, who wasn鈥檛 involved in the report, called Warming Projections Global Update.
The report notes there has been big progress on long-term net-zero pledges, with more than 140 countries representing 90 per cent of global emissions now having one, including India. Those send an 鈥渋mportant signal鈥�, according to the report, but the lack of action and commitment this decade casts 鈥渁 long and dark shadow of doubt鈥� over net-zero goals.
For example, if countries stick to current policies, temperatures are expected to rise by as much as 2.7掳C. At the opposite end of the spectrum is an 鈥渙ptimistic scenario鈥� 鈥� if all countries match their net-zero pledges with new policies in the 2020s, it would lead to 1.8掳C. The authors say that is a big if.
The 2030 plans of China, the European Union and the US are judged to have had the most impact on lowering future warming. India鈥檚 new 2030 pledges, including sourcing half of the country鈥檚 electricity from renewables by 2030, are seen as only offering 鈥渕ildly鈥� better emissions curbs than current policies.
at the NewClimate Institute, a non-profit research organisation in Germany, says optimistic scenarios projecting 1.8掳C of warming 鈥渟hould not give us false confidence that we鈥檝e [reached our climate goals]鈥�. He adds: 鈥淣obody should lean back. All countries have the vision to go to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. What is missing is the implementation, the short-term action, and that is where we have the gap.鈥�
Hohne says his group鈥檚 findings show that waiting until 2025 for countries to submit new plans for 2030, as currently planned, is too late. Instead he says COP26 needs to commit governments to keep coming back once a year until the world is on track for 1.5掳C and well below 2掳C.
Alok Sharma, the president of the COP26 summit, said today that he expects further reports to examine what pledges made for Glasgow add up to. 鈥淲hat I think they will all be demonstrating is there has been some progress but clearly not enough,鈥� he said. He welcomed signs that commitments were bending the curve of future temperatures but added that warming of around 2掳C was 鈥渘ot good enough.鈥�
Former US president Barack Obama yesterday echoed the view that COP26 had seen progress, but it wasn鈥檛 enough. Speaking at the summit, he said: 鈥淲e are nowhere near where we need to be yet.鈥� He welcomed deals last week to curb methane emissions and halt deforestation. But he said he was 鈥減articularly disappointed鈥� that Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin had not attended in person, unlike .
One key outcome of the Glasgow summit, the final statement known as a 鈥渃over decision鈥�, will become clearer on Tuesday when a draft is expected to be published by the UK presidency of the talks. A marker of its strength will be what it says about how often countries should revisit their 2030 plans, so that they will be more than greenwashing. Laurence Tubiana, a key architect of the Paris Agreement, said at a press conference on 8 November: 鈥淕reenwashing is for me now the new climate denial.鈥�
Other key elements to watch for in the final statement will be the inclusion of climate finance for poorer countries beyond 2025, a goal on climate change adaptation and an agreement on several outstanding rules relating to the Paris Agreement.
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