Is the world any closer to its goal of holding climate change to 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels? Four days into the COP26 summit, 120 world leaders have departed Glasgow, UK, and the dust is settling on a series of side deals around cutting methane and halting deforestation. India made the biggest concrete pledge by promising the use of far more renewables by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070.
We knew before the conference that emissions pledges had the world on track for 2.7掳C of warming by the end of the century, well off course for the 1.5掳C milestone. Despite that huge gap, a largely positive gloss has been put on Glasgow鈥檚 prospects for 鈥渒eeping 1.5掳C alive鈥�, the stated aim of the summit鈥檚 host country, the UK.
鈥淲e are off to a good start at COP26,鈥� said , the COP26 president, at a press conference. 鈥淟eaders came armed with the ambition that they should rightly be showing. It is clear there is no turning back.鈥� He cited the rapidly growing number of countries setting net-zero targets, which now cover around 90 per cent of the world economy.
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Others agree that COP26 has seen progress. Monday and Tuesday鈥檚 leaders鈥� event made a difference, according to , chair of the Least Developed Countries Group on climate change, a coalition of 46 nations representing a billion people. 鈥淚 believe most of the statements were for a 1.5掳C world. They were quite clear it鈥檚 time to act.鈥� On climate policy, he said the wind was 鈥渂lowing in the right direction鈥�.
Former president of the Maldives says the most exciting move was by India. 鈥淲hen you add all the numbers, I believe 1.5掳C is now reachable. We need 1.5掳C for us to survive and I think this is the case for many vulnerable countries,鈥� he says. Nasheed also welcomed the methane deals, though found it would only avoid 0.1掳C of warming by 2050.
Several scientists also said they believed the 1.5掳C target remains within reach, despite the huge challenge. One said Glasgow has already given efforts to meet the goal an 鈥渋ncredible push鈥�.
An analysis suggests that COP26 has already moved the temperature dial. The group in Australia found that the world is on track for 1.9掳C of warming, down from 2.7掳C just a week ago. This suggests that the Paris Agreement鈥檚 goal of holding warming to 鈥渨ell below鈥� 2掳C is within touching distance, even if 1.5掳C isn鈥檛 yet.
However, it is crucial to look at what goes into that accounting. That sunny 1.9掳C outcome counts official emissions plans 鈥� known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs 鈥� but also assumes that mid-century net-zero goals are translated into action this decade. Yet, as at the Technical University of Denmark says, many big emitters鈥� targets for 2030 aren鈥檛 aligned with their 2050, 2060 and 2070 goals.
The Australian researchers acknowledge this. 鈥淚n the near-term up to 2030, several pledged NDCs are far higher than business-as-usual emission projections, whereas net-zero targets in the long-term require in all cases a substantial upscaling of efforts,鈥� they write.
at the NewClimate Institute in Germany says the analysis takes an optimistic view of what action will be implemented. 鈥淭he short-term view is pointing in the opposite direction,鈥� he says. 鈥淪everal countries use the net-zero pledge to disguise that they are not updating their 2030 targets or not implementing short-term measures, such as Russia, Australia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.鈥� As it stands, H枚hne says countries鈥� current policies would see just below 3掳C of warming.
UK politician , a veteran of the 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen, that any progress towards the 1.5掳C target is welcome, 鈥渂ut we need extreme caution about declaring success on the basis of vague and often vacuous net zero targets three or more decades hence鈥�. He also said Australia and Saudi Arabia鈥檚 net-zero goals were greenwashing.
, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, the body overseeing COP26, said at a press conference that a gap remains between pledges and the 1.5掳C goal. 鈥淲e have to work on how are we going to address that gap. In terms of ambition, that is the biggest challenge of this conference.鈥�
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