The coronavirus-led shutdown of large parts of the economy is likely to cut the UK鈥檚 electricity needs dramatically this summer, potentially by as much as a fifth.
While electricity demand always dips in summer months, the UK鈥檚 聽that the response to covid-19 could see electricity demand drop by between 4 and 20 per cent in the daytime.
That will make it harder than usual聽to match electricity supply with demand, and ways of balancing the two 鈥� such as calling on energy storage and constraining output from wind farms 鈥� will be needed more often, says Thomas Edwards at UK energy analysis firm Cornwall Insight.
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However, Gavin Brown at National Grid ESO says he is confident that the company can cope with a 20 per cent reduction. 鈥淲e have experience of operating near those levels.鈥�
Some of that experience came on Easter Monday, when travel restrictions and the bank holiday drove demand to a record low of 15.2 gigawatts in the UK. The result was that renewable and nuclear energy .
That was a windy, sunny day across Europe, and ongoing coronavirus measures in European countries helped create a similar situation throughout the continent, says Dave Jones at UK think tank Ember. 鈥淵ou had this moment where electricity operators had a challenge like they鈥檝e never seen before and they coped extraordinarily well,鈥� he says.
Fossil fuel generation is down by more than a fifth, and the share of renewable energy being used for power is up in many European countries, he says. The current situation shows that, in the future, grids could cope with far higher amounts of electricity from renewable sources, he adds.
Jim Watson at University College London says this summer will be a new challenge for the National Grid, but one it can deal with. 鈥淚t does provide an earlier than expected preview of some of the challenges of managing a system with greater shares of variable renewables,鈥� he adds.
The shifting situation comes as , commissioned by a solar industry group, concluded that a 100 per cent renewable electricity system is possible in Europe by 2050 鈥� and would result in cheaper energy costs, too.
Brown says it is too early to say what the changes mean for UK CO2 emissions from energy this year. However, analytics firm ICIS has said it expects emissions from Europe鈥檚 power sector as a whole to drop by 13 per cent.
Globally, there is still huge uncertainty as to how big the decline in CO2 emissions will be this year. One analysis by UK-based website Carbon Brief put the figure at this week.
The immediate impact on air quality has been clearer. The European Space Agency on 16 April that nitrogen dioxide air pollution levels have roughly halved in some major European cities in the past month due to lockdown measures. Levels are down 45 per cent in Madrid, Milan and Rome, and 54 per cent in Paris, usually one of western Europe鈥檚 most polluted cities.
The pandemic is also changing how people discuss the best ways to tackle climate change. The final event for the , where citizens air their views in meetings organised by committees of UK MPs, is being switched from an in-person meeting in Birmingham to a series of Zoom calls from 18 April. The assembly鈥檚 results are due to be presented later this month to the UK government, but aren鈥檛 binding.
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