People in Chinese cities usually plagued by harmful air pollution are breathing far cleaner air. Boat鈥慺ree canals in Venice, Italy, are . And for the quarter of the global population now living under a coronavirus lockdown, a lack of cars and planes has made the world quieter and birdsong more apparent.
While there are signs of easing pressure on the environment, no credible environmentalists say the response forced by the pandemic is a solution for the challenges the world faces on climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss.
鈥淭he crucial thing to observe is this is happening in an unplanned, chaotic way that鈥檚 hurting people鈥檚 lives. You鈥檇 never advocate for such a thing in climate policy,鈥� says Sam Fankhauser at the London School of Economics.
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One clear impact has been on air quality. Satellite observations by Europe鈥檚 found that China saw a 30 per cent drop in February in two key air pollutants, nitrogen dioxide (NO2鈥�) and particulate matter. In Italy, they fell by 40 to 50 per cent in March.
鈥淭here is no precedent to something like this,鈥� says Vincent-Henri Peuch at CAMS. He thinks the closest historical parallels for such dramatic drops are the 2008 Olympic games in Beijing, when China took drastic steps to fight pollution, and after the fall of the Berlin Wall, when industries in the former East Germany installed cleaner technology.
It is too early to detect pollution falls linked to the pandemic in other parts of the world, says Peuch. That is because changes in the weather mean pollution levels vary naturally from day to day and year to year. Another complicating factor is that more people may have taken to cars due to limits on public transport ahead of lockdowns, potentially pushing up pollution for a time, says Peuch.
There may be negatives for air quality efforts too. London, which has the UK鈥檚 worst NO2 pollution, has temporarily suspended its Ultra Low Emission Zone to help key workers move around. The scheme鈥檚 revenues are usually reinvested into clean air efforts.
In the long run, the economic hit may hamper efforts to improve air quality, such as car-makers having less to invest in cleaner models. 鈥淭he pressure on public finance, but also on private companies鈥� finance, might make implementing those needed investments over the longer term even more difficult,鈥� says Hans Bruyninckx at the European Environment Agency.
The pandemic will certainly have consequences for climate change. Planes grounded across the globe are no longer contributing to global warming, but record atmospheric concentrations of CO2鈥�, which climbed to , are unlikely to reverse. Experts say it is in March from coronavirus responses.
However, observers think that global CO2 emissions are likely to drop in 2020, ending several years of slow growth. 鈥淭his year, I expect the emissions to decline significantly. But, in my view, this is not a reason to be happy. Emissions are going down for the wrong reasons,鈥� says Fatih Birol at the International Energy Agency.
Based on existing economic forecasts, they will fall at least 0.3聽per cent, but probably much more, according to Glen Peters at聽the Center for International Climate Research in Norway. A聽separate estimate by the Breakthrough Institute is for a fall of 0.5 to 2.2 per cent. But annual drops of 7.6聽per cent are needed to keep聽global warming below 1.5掳C, according to the United Nations.
What is clear is the big effect on the energy sector, which is by聽far the largest source of global carbon emissions. With many industries and services shut down, every country in Europe has seen , climate think聽tank Ember has found.
Oil and gas firms are , sub-$30 per barrel oil prices. That brings fossil fuel returns in line with renewable energy projects, making those green alternatives look more attractive.
What happens after the pandemic subsides will be key to the overall climate change impact. After the 2008 financial crash, , wiping out the fall resulting from the episode, as governments pumped in public money to assist economies. That is why debate is raging in the US, Europe and elsewhere over coronavirus stimulus measures and bailouts for carbon-intensive sectors such as airlines.
鈥淕overnments should use this moment of unexpected paralysis to prepare economic recovery packages that accelerate clean-energy systems,鈥� says Christiana Figueres, who was UN climate chief when the Paris deal was agreed in 2015. Laurence Tubiana, who as a French diplomat also played a key role in the deal, wants 鈥済reen strings鈥� to any stimulus, such as car-makers having to produce more electric models.
After the pandemic
Travel curbs are also making it hard for the UK and other nations to conduct diplomacy to from countries ahead of November鈥檚 UN climate summit, says Tubiana. Those plans are crucial for closing the gap between the catastrophic 3掳C-plus of warming we are on track for and the 1.5掳C limit.
Further environmental impacts from the pandemic might seem trivial but could still be significant, says Bruyninckx. One is a reduction in noise pollution for millions of people. The other is an easing of the stress on water supplies in some areas because of less tourism and industrial activity. By comparison, any extra water consumption from handwashing to tackle the virus will be negligible, says Bruyninckx.
In Venice, the canals may simply be clearer because boats aren鈥檛 stirring up sediment from the city鈥檚 lagoon and canals. Without measurement, it is impossible to say if water quality is better, says Davide Tagliapietra at the Institute of Marine Sciences, Venice.
Farming may yet be affected by聽the pandemic too. In the UK, the National Farmers鈥� Union says there has been no intensification of food production to make up for a聽slowing of imports. But growers who rely on seasonal workers to聽pick fruit and vegetables are 鈥渆xtremely concerned鈥� about recruiting them this year, with the聽risk of food going to waste.
Whatever the crisis鈥檚 lasting environmental impact, Figueres says one lesson is the reminder that prevention is better than cure. That is true for both planetary and human health, she says. 鈥淲e are better off preventing the worst impacts of climate change, rather than trying to deal with what will become unmanageable consequences.鈥�
