A year ago, when Donald Trump entered the race for the White House, the press (liberal and illiberal) thought his chances of success were something south of an improbable joke.
In this magazine, I stepped forward to firmly predict that this political version of would win the Republican nomination. I believed he would do so because of his ability to dominate his opponents in a way that had echoes of potent primate power plays and, crucially, because I could see that this outsider appealed to a US electorate tired of politics driven by insidious lobbying interests.
I didn鈥檛, however, predict that Trump would actually go on to become US president. I couldn鈥檛 see a man openly espousing views with intended tones of outright bigotry winning an election in my America.
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I failed to see that his erratic behaviour and his dogged refusal to become 鈥減residential鈥� was locking in an enthusiastic base, especially among those caught in the bleak eddies of industrial decline. The rest is history.
The Trump effect
Three weeks in, as his show rolls on and the government of this improbable billionaire takes shape, he is staying true to his basic constituency, invoking a travel ban, mocking climate change, preparing to dismantle regulations that protect the public and the world from the natural greed that attends commercial activities, actively moving against Hispanic-sanctuary cities and planning a hugely expensive wall on the border with Mexico 鈥� when all that is necessary is to enforce existing laws against greedy employers hiring illegals to work for next to nothing.
Amid the protests, the hope lingers that his bark is worse than his bite. Trump speaks in hyperbole uncustomary for either businessmen or politicians, rather than politically parsing his words like a lawyerly Bill Clinton. The end result may yet be more moderate than the opening position 鈥� for example his perceived hostility to NATO has softened.
However, I worry that the cabinet he is assembling may not provide him with sufficient guidance to gain a big picture of the world that might rein in his more extreme pronouncements.
And while he is too smart politically to strip US citizens of the retirements and medical insurance plans they have already paid for, there is much other damage that could be done, especially to key economic institutions. As for the dangers of corruptive institutionalised bribery, a once has said nothing so far about meaningful lobbying reform.
Threat to democracy
Underlying all this is a more fundamental worry. When they arise, as they do every so often, hatred-inspiring, polarising, become a real threat to democracy.
Right now, it might be difficult to think about what could right the dysfunctional US ship. At the helm is a president routinely labelled a bully, not just by his opponents, but by .
But resisting bullies has been part of our nature for a long time. As an anthropologist, I study human hunter-gatherers. For tens of thousands of years, these egalitarian people would band together to kill tyrants. Some 90 per cent of human history was spent in such groups. Those instincts are with us still, albeit sanitised for contemporary society.
The modern version of this system of control is the constitutional democracy with its checks and balances designed to anticipate moves to despotism. In the US, that means Congress and the courts can stand against the White House. , and . We are starting to as the courts oppose Trump鈥檚 travel ban.
I believe there is enough robustness left in constitutional democracy in the US to ensure that is held at bay. So this time I do make another prediction. It is that our system of democracy, with its origins in a deep-rooted human instinct, will be tested but will easily win.
