If all goes according to and the plans of camp Trump, Donald J. will have Iowa鈥檚 nomination for Republican presidential candidate in the bag by the end of today.
Rewind to last June, and the that Trump entered the race for the White House. As a political anthropologist who knows charisma when I see it, I predicted that he would become that party鈥檚 nominee. I have watched with bemusement as . They eventually had to eat their hats as he emerged as the frontrunner.
My next prediction is that this controversial alpha male will give the Democrats a real run for their money when the US goes to the polls on 8 November.
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There have been many attempts to explain Trump鈥檚 success so far. For my money, I turn to primate politics. His model of political posturing has echoes of what I saw in the wild in six years in Tanzania studying the Gombe chimpanzees.
One stood out 鈥� , an alpha male that used the usual alliances and intimidation displays of his species to stay on top. He threatened or attacked any rival who showed signs of challenging him, and usually struck sharply and pre-emptively. He would get up early and knock rivals out of their nests.
Similarly, Trump knows exactly who and when to attack to maximise intimidation 鈥� from Republican rivals Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz to Democrat hopeful Hillary Clinton and TV host .
In the jungle, the chimpanzee bluff involves a male鈥檚 long black hair standing on end and a charge at his rival, which may race up a tree screaming or might stand and fight. So far, Trump鈥檚 political competitors are mostly racing up trees, though nearest rival Cruz has started to fight back.
Staying alpha
Trump is a man who understands how to gain and keep an alpha position. Back in Gombe, , an alpha male before Goblin鈥檚 time, was an innovator. He took some oil drums from the camp of primatologist Jane Goodall and incorporated them into his aggressive displays, noisily terrifying his peers. Mike became alpha.
Trump has innovated in a similar way. His oil drums are his bald insults along with his threats against the Republican establishment and the media, and his freedom from relying on contributions from vested interests. The billionaire says his campaign is self-funding and that he cannot therefore be bought.
The latter is important because the number one disease of US democracy is a lobbying system that amounts to institutionalised bribery. Our political world has become one of carefully controlled, poll-driven candidacies, in which campaigns are funded by lobbies and conflicted participants must both appeal to voters and stay in favour with financial backers whose interests are scarcely in the public interest.
The result has been a swarm of opportunistic insiders working within a system that has wholly captured them, but finally the public worm is turning. Trump, along with Democrat contender Bernie Sanders, is refreshingly independent in a year when independence really matters.
If Trump emerges from the electoral jungle victorious after banging his oil cans, it will be interesting to see if he is as aggressive in accomplishing things for the people who elected him as he has been in trying to become the alpha male of an entire planet.
