I FIRST arrived in Beijing in 1984. The winter was bitterly cold. We routinely wore three pairs of long johns under our jeans, tops and sweaters, then added a bulky overcoat to go outdoors. What meagre heating we had was only on for four months of the year, even though Beijing hovered below freezing for almost six. It was also dark. One of my students cheerfully informed me it was “Save electricity Tuesday”, which was always followed by “Save electricity Friday”. These were rolling blackouts, when electricity was switched off across the neighbourhood for the entire day – even in factories, which meant no one worked twice a week.
Despite the lack of warmth, light and transportation, Beijing was horribly polluted, especially in winter. Buses belched black smoke. When I rode my bike through city streets I’d often find chunks of coal in my hair, coughed up by the boilers of the surrounding houses. It was a full year before I knew that the Western Hills should be visible from right outside the Beijing Normal University, where I was employed as teacher.
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Fast-forward to today, and Beijing is a changed city. People’s lives have been radically transformed. The Western Hills are now visible at least half the time. Beijingers live in modern apartments with warm water, televisions, refrigerators and washing machines – all the usual trappings of modern life. This lifestyle has come at the cost of a huge rise in energy consumption, most of it generated by coal-fired power stations. Not only is China now the largest overall energy consumer in the world, it has surged ahead to become the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. But as representatives from 195 nations gather in Paris for a crucial round of UN climate talks next week, it’s worth exploring a different side of the story.
Peer behind the curtain and you get a more nuanced picture than the usual stats suggest. A remarkable change is now taking place in China. Quietly, over the last decade, it has turned its factories around, with a view to cleaning up the skies above. China is no eco-saint, but it has recognised the enormous benefits of using fuel more efficiently. After the massive growth of the last 15 years, its emissions are starting to slow. It’s still early days, but China’s coal use has already peaked, and a greenhouse gas peak may not be far behind.
“2007/08 China becomes the world’s biggest emitter”
No one – not even China – expected its emissions to shoot up quite as fast as they did. When, in 2007, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency suggested that the country had become the world’s top emitter, the news came as a surprise to all. It was several years earlier than anticipated – so much so that the figure was disputed.
The International Energy Agency confirmed the trend in 2008. In 2010, China became the world’s largest energy consumer, about five years earlier than expected. And in 2014, the Global Carbon Project reported that its emissions per capita exceeded those of the European Union. The figure is an average. Germany’s per capita emissions, for instance, are still higher than China’s; those of other EU nations, like the UK and France, are now lower. This rapid rise in emissions – compounded by China’s huge population, which amps up any stats about it – is why the country is often described rather simplistically as the world’s largest polluter.
“2010 China becomes the world’s biggest energy consumer”
How to control emissions is at the heart of the UN climate talks. There are two main ways of doing this: you can cut the amount of fossil fuels you burn and you can stop deforestation. China is, in fact, a major reforester. Forest cover has grown from 8.6 per cent in 1949 to more than 20 per cent today.
And while there are debates about how much carbon each new acre of trees captures, and concerns about the biodiversity and health of China’s new forests, increased tree cover has undoubtedly soaked up a great deal of carbon that would otherwise be in the atmosphere.
“2014 Chinese coal use dropped for the first time”
Most of that carbon comes from coal – the dirtiest of fossil fuels – but the country has also made a huge effort to boost other sources of power. Figures from the Global Wind Energy Council show that China now has more installed wind power than any other country, and each year adds more than everyone else. It is also second in installed solar capacity.
The country gets nearly a quarter of its electricity from hydropower, and that share will continue to grow for another five to 10 years until prime locations are all taken up. Hydropower is often criticised for its environmental cost, but it is worth remembering that the dam-building we are seeing in China today is following the same path as it did in Europe, the US and Canada in the last century.
Solar, wind and hydro – plus a small but growing portion of nuclear power – are paving the way for a future that relies less on coal. In 2014 it accounted for 65 per cent of China’s energy use, down from 70 per cent in 2011. While the trend is encouraging, the figures show that so far, alternative fuels have only had a small impact. The real way China is controlling its emissions is less photogenic than a solar array, but much more potent.
Like many developing nations, 20th-century China was far from energy-efficient. What little heating and electricity we had in our spartan 1980s apartments came from inefficient coal boilers. Those used in power stations were actually dangerous. They were known to blow up, killing workers, if the pressure was raised to boost efficiency. The government responded by buying and developing new, safer, more efficient technology – a good start, but the breakneck pace at which China began transforming itself in the 2000s meant that these initial efforts paled into insignificance compared with the sheer quantity of energy being used. In 2006 the government renewed its efforts by declaring “energy efficiency and pollution reduction” a national priority and bringing in new programmes to target industry.
Researchers in Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s China Energy Group have shown that real improvements came primarily from two major programmes launched in the 2006-2010 five-year plan that had almost equal importance. The Thousand Enterprises Program took China’s top 1000 companies and forced them to completely rethink their energy use. Companies were told to appoint staff to monitor energy efficiency and upgrade, redesign and replace industrial kit and software – all with the aim of becoming more energy-savvy, cutting the amount of power they used without denting productivity.
Peak emissions
The second programme was more drastic. In order to cut energy waste, thousands of small and inefficient industrial units across the nation – factories, assembly lines – were simply told to close down. In most cases, companies shut old, dirty installations and shifted operations to newer ones. Remember that China’s economy was booming at the time. For the most part workers either shifted within the same company or looked for opportunities in the exploding economy.
Both programmes targeted steel, cement, power, paper and other energy-hungry industries. They were so successful that they were extended in the next five-year plan. The Thousand Enterprise Program became the Ten Thousand Enterprise Program. Smaller and more inefficient plants continued to shut up shop.
The efforts have borne fruit. In the first five years, China cut energy intensity – a measure of how much energy is used to generate $1 of GDP – by 19.1 per cent, missing its ambitious 20 per cent goal by a hair’s breadth. This was a victory in my eyes, both because the figure was much higher than outsiders predicted, and because it showed China would be honest about its achievements even when it didn’t quite meet its goals. The goal of the current five-year plan is to reduce intensity by another 16 per cent, and all indications are that this will be met. The government has also set a carbon intensity target to cut the amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP by 17 per cent. This was a goal promised at the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009.
“#1 China has more installed wind power than any other nation”
It takes a long time for energy policies to produce major results, but China is now clearly committed to a lower carbon future. In the last 12 months, it has said that its emissions will peak by 2030 or earlier if possible. It is difficult to overstate the importance of this peak for the future of the planet, especially when we’re talking about the world’s biggest emitter. Even though developing nations still need room to grow – meaning their emissions will continue to rise in the short term – temperatures simply cannot be kept in check if global emissions keep on growing year after year.
While the Chinese never explicitly say they are responding to the emissions data, they do describe themselves as under increasing pressure. The pressure is not just to cut emissions in response to the international community, but also to clean up its air and water to improve public and environmental health. China is still in many ways a developing country, but it has also clearly recognised its responsibility to be a world leader.
And here’s the surprising aspect of the Chinese growth model. The country’s emissions rose faster than anyone expected, but the reverse may also come to pass.Emissions are still growing, but they are rising a little less with each passing year, which suggests China is in fact rapidly approaching its peak. Coal consumption actually dropped for the first time ever in 2014, according to the China’s National Coal Association. Some say the drop is due to an economic downturn. But a number of economists argue that the slowdown in China’s traditional industrial sector has been matched by a rise in the services industry – a shift towards low-carbon sectors that would be good news both for the economy and, crucially, for global emissions.
Certainly on the ground in China things appear quite prosperous. Where, in the 1980s, you had virtually no transport between even the major city hubs, today you have access to fantastic subway systems, high-speed rail that connects virtually the entire country, city and inter-city bus systems, a comprehensive air network, over 200 million electric bicycles, and over 150 million private cars. High-speed rail is gradually replacing air travel on shorter routes – a huge carbon saving.
The general consensus among climate change analysts is that China is now approaching its emissions peak surprisingly fast because it is moving away from an economy that is primarily driven by industry. Jiang Kejun, one of China’s foremost energy modellers at the government-run Energy Research Institute, argues the country can peak as early as 2022. Within China, there is a healthy debate on the subject, but the consensus is that a pre-2030 emissions peak is quite possible.
“65% Proportion of energy that comes from coal, down from 70% in 2011”
Recently, in a remarkable Joint Presidential Statement with the US, China also committed to setting emissions targets for various sectors, and to getting a cap and trade market – where polluters may trade the right to emit – off the ground by 2017. Some of the planning for the cap and trade system is impressive. The design process is mainly about how to allocate carbon credits to industry. Zhang Xiliang of Tsinghua University in Beijing, who is part of the design team, says credits are being given only to factories that operate above a benchmark level of efficiency. Others will need to purchase them, which should help close down even more top polluters, for whom the cost will be too much to bear.
“2022 When Chinese emissions could begin to drop, ahead of the official 2030 target”
Whether carbon markets will be the best solution for China is an open question. Both Jiang and Yang Fuqiang of the Natural Resources Defense Council, a US NGO, believe it will ultimately implement a carbon tax. The Chinese government is good at collecting taxes, and does not have to deal with the same political opposition to taxation as the US and Europe. Which solution it opts for is essentially a technicality. The bottom line is that it has a number of tools to control emissions and an economy that is changing in ways that help with further cuts.
This brings us to the next milestone – the talks in Paris, which begin on 30 November. This round is significant: at stake is a long-term agreement to curb global emissions. Existing climate agreements cover emissions up to 2020, but governments have pledged that by close of business on 11 December, they will have a document setting out concrete steps for addressing the climate crisis beyond that date.
As China has become wealthier, and daily life more like that in many developed countries, especially for the half of the population who live in cities, the country has also forged more connections with the rest of the world. Thirty years ago, Chinese policy was highly insular. Today its scholars are major players in drafting the assessments that inform climate talks, and its negotiators are playing an increasingly active role too. Many of those I’ve spoken to talk of China’s potential to be a leader in Paris. They say the presidential statement, which was issued in September, could form the basis for agreements. They also point out that China’s commitment of $3.1 billion to help developing nations cope with climate change is slightly more than the US promise of $3 billion. This, they say, is reinvigorating talks about financing the fight against climate change.
It’s far from an even picture. Pollution and especially protecting the environment are still enormous challenges for China, but on climate change it appears to have turned a corner.
(Images: Chris Malbon, Ian Teh/Panos, ImagineChina)
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This article appeared in print under the headline “The dragon morphs”
