We won't survive long enough to simulate reality
In “Is reality a simulation?” by Nick Bostrom, republished as an extract from your Essential Guide: The Nature of Reality, he ponders the question posed in the headline.
To answer yes, it would have to be possible to create a computer simulation that includes self-conscious entities. It may be possible, if extraordinarily difficult, to replicate the physical matrix of the brain, but achieving the emergent quality of consciousness from this seems very unlikely.
Bostrom considers various propositions that might answer the simulation question. The first is that “almost all civilisations at our level of development become extinct before becoming technologically mature”, which would rule out a simulation if true. I would say this is likely to be correct, given our trashing of our essential biosphere.
This would mean, of course, that Bostrum’s final proposition, “You are almost certainly living in a computer simulation”, is almost certainly not true.
The editor writes Essential Guide: The Nature of Reality, a compilation of the best 快猫短视频 writing on this subject, is available now
Is there a route to make vaccine trials safer?
You report that there are already 26,000 potential volunteers willing to take part in a “human challenge” trial for a covid-19 vaccine, in which they would be exposed to the virus post-vaccination to test its efficacy 6 June, p 10.
However, as indicated, ethical concerns are likely to prevent or delay such trials. Given that covid-19 can cause serious illness and even death, the regulatory bodies wouldn’t be unreasonable in taking a cautious approach. I would like to suggest a possible way to reduce this dilemma.
Perhaps plasma from vaccinated subjects could be given to people with mild to moderate covid-19. If these people show a reduction in the development of serious illness, this may indicate that the antibodies from the vaccinated person’s plasma are effective in reducing disease severity.
Not only would the ethical difficulties for the regulatory bodies be reduced, but the shortage of plasma from recovered patients would also potentially be alleviated: a win-win situation.
There are other ways to keep shipping safe
In your online story about spoofing the Automatic Identification System (AIS) of ships, you state: “There haven’t been any known accidents due to the spoofing, but ships rely on AIS to avoid collisions, so there is the potential for major disaster 13 June, p 19.”
As a merchant ship captain, I can say that AIS, which includes GPS data, has without doubt increased safety at sea because ships are transmitting identity and destination. This resolves a lot of potential problems. However, AIS isn’t a recognised system for collision avoidance 鈥� radar and visual observation usually are.
Yes, GPS can be spoofed, and this can create issues if you rely solely on GPS. But with the proliferation of satellite navigation systems besides GPS, it will become more difficult to spoof ship locations.
On the trail of the missing dark matter (1)
Your fascinating articles about dark matter, in particular “Have we got the universe right?” by Jim Peebles, prompt me to suggest that we should consider more closely how much mass has been drawn into black holes since their inception and what has happened to it 6 June, p 30.
Some scientists suspect that dark matter is at the centres of galaxies, where some or most of the black holes seem to be. Could it be that the suggestion that dark matter came into being about 6 billion years ago defines the point at which black holes became significant enough in size or mass to exert the effect on the universe that we are trying to explain by postulating “dark matter”.
Can I have my PhD now please?
Newitz's falcons are my borlotti beans (1)
Annalee Newitz wrote interestingly about our general desire, in this lockdown hell, to experience vigilance and amazement 6 June, p 21.
They cite as an example being able to watch the daily life of a family of falcons unfold through a webcam, and say that this reflects a need to vicariously experience natural processes over time.
I am growing borlotti beans in my little front garden, and it occurred to me as I read the article that this is exactly what I am doing: watching through my front window as they grow, night and day, the fragile tendrils spiralling up their canes to the sky.
The only difference is that Newitz doesn’t (I hope!) look forward to drying, storing, then cooking and eating the falcons in a stew later in the year.
To train a lie-detecting AI, just feed it some politics
Dwight Hines suggests that court transcripts could be a source of training material for a linguistically based lie-detection algorithm Letters, 6 June.
I offer the pronouncements of our top politicians and their aides with respect to the pandemic and to climate change as a much richer seam of data to mine for this purpose.
Newitz's falcons are my borlotti beans (2)
The oddly satisfying videos that Newitz enjoys brought to mind videos that are said to provoke an autonomous sensory median response (ASMR).
The audio and tactile triggers in ASMR footage that apparently give some people a pleasurable sensation leave me cold, but I do get something close to that from looking at things like robots making very precise movements and repetitive production line processes.
I thought it was just me, but it seems that Newitz and others experience something similar.
On the trail of the missing dark matter (2)
Peebles is correct to say that physics is incomplete. It probably always will be. So, have we got the universe right?
Well, the short answer must be that we don’t know. But there are good reasons for suspecting that we haven’t, and that the big bang theory is wrong. As we get more and more telescopes of varying kinds up into orbit, not just around Earth but around the sun too, the picture will become clearer.