A record surge of solar panels flowing from China to countries in Africa over the past year is a sign the continent is seeing a rapid build-out of renewable energy. That could help expand access to cheap, clean electricity and reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.

鈥淭his isn鈥檛 a massive explosion yet in itself,鈥� says at Ember, an energy think tank in the UK. 鈥淚t鈥檚 the start of the takeoff.鈥�

Jones and his colleagues analysed on Chinese solar panel exports since 2017. There is some solar panel manufacturing capacity in Africa 鈥� but as with most of the world, Chinese imports make up nearly all of the continent鈥檚 supply.

Between June 2024 and 2025, the researchers found exports to Africa surged 60 per cent compared to the previous year, amounting to just over 15 gigawatts of power capacity imported over that period.

Unlike an earlier surge in 2022 and 2023 that was driven mostly by imports to South Africa, this upward trend was spread across the continent 鈥� with 20 countries seeing import records and 25 countries importing more than 100 megawatts worth of panels. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not being led by one or two countries,鈥� says Jones. 鈥淭o me, that鈥檚 the most incredible part of the story.鈥�

South Africa was still the leader, importing about a quarter of the total. But other countries also imported a raft of panels: Nigeria was second with 1721 megawatts, followed by Algeria with 1199 megawatts, about a tenth of the total. Over the past two years, solar panel imports from China to countries in Africa 鈥� excluding South Africa 鈥揾ave more than tripled.

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Assuming all the panels imported over the past year were installed, the researchers estimate 16 countries imported enough to supply at least 5 per cent of current electricity generation; Sierra Leone could generate more than 60 per cent of its current electricity with the panels it imported alone. These solar imports could begin to offset far more expensive fossil fuel imports.

鈥淎frica鈥檚 just energy transition is no longer a future aspiration. It is unfolding now,鈥� says at Greenpeace Africa, an environmental advocacy group. 鈥淭his transition has a huge potential of reshaping how we build resilience to the climate chaos and drive development.鈥�

The surge comes partly from large solar installations under construction, but that isn鈥檛 the whole story. Jones says a lot of the imports appear to be going to small, distributed installations on rooftops or farms, as people seek cheaper, more reliable sources than national grids. A similar trend is playing out in Pakistan, which saw explosive growth in rooftop solar over the past few years driven by the falling cost of panels.

This is a hopeful trend, given about in Africa 鈥� nearly half of the continent鈥檚 population 鈥� lack access to reliable electricity. However, solar development on the continent still lags behind the rest of the world. African countries have struggled to attract investment in renewable energy, receiving just of the global total in recent decades, according to the International Energy Agency. Over the past year, Pakistan alone saw more solar panel imports than all of Africa, despite having one-sixth the population.

鈥淭he real challenge before us is to turn this momentum into lasting gains by aligning financing, policy and local industries to ensure clean energy is not only available, but also reliable, affordable and inclusive for all Africans,鈥� says Wemanya.

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The leftover ore discarded by US mines is packed with key minerals 鈥� enough to provide virtually all of the raw material needed to build clean energy technologies. Recovering just a fraction of these minerals could meet the country鈥檚 growing demand for green energy without requiring imports or environmentally-damaging new mines 鈥� but getting them is easier said than done.

鈥淲e have to get better at using the material that we mine,鈥� says at the Colorado School of Mines.

Currently, most individual mines focus on extracting just a few types of minerals, such as copper or gold. That involves digging up ore, crushing it and then separating out the main product using various metallurgical processes. Everything left over is then disposed of as tailings. 鈥淢ost of what we are mining is waste,鈥� says Holley.

These leftovers often contain other useful materials, including dozens of critical minerals the US government has identified as essential to military and energy technologies, such as solar panels, wind turbines and batteries. But the supply chains for some of these minerals are controlled by China, sparking urgent concern among the US and its allies聽they could be wielded for geopolitical leverage. That has spurred a search for alternative mineral sources, including mining byproducts and tailings.

However, most mines don鈥檛 know exactly what they are tossing out. 鈥淢any of the elements we currently consider critical were not in much use in the past, so no one was analysing for them,鈥� says Holley.

Holley and her colleagues looked at thousands of ore samples and production data representative of mines around the US. They used this information to estimate the volume of other minerals that could be extracted from 54 active hard rock metal mines if new refining steps were added.

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For some minerals, they found extracting just 1 per cent of what is contained in mining byproducts could replace all current US imports. Other minerals required higher recovery rates, ranging from 10 to 90 per cent, to replace imports. And a few metals, including gold, platinum and palladium, would still have to be imported even if 100 per cent could be recovered from byproducts.

These numbers suggest the US could meet most of its rising demand for critical minerals without building new mines, says Holley. That would help secure supply chains, as well as reduce the environmental impacts of mining. 鈥淚t would be better to get more out of what we already mine,鈥� she says.

at the University of British Columbia in Canada says this shows the 鈥渙pportunity is vast鈥� 鈥� but much more research is needed to translate estimates of the total quantity of minerals that are out there into actual recovery. 鈥淗opefully it energizes people in government as well as industry to take a closer look at what we鈥檙e mining,鈥� he says.

Just knowing where these minerals exist is hardly the only barrier. Current refining technology isn鈥檛 well-suited for these small, complicated waste streams, and deploying the necessary tech is too expensive for most US mines, says at Nth Cycle, a start-up focused on extracting critical minerals from unconventional sources.

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Mines can also be hesitant to invest money in extracting new types of minerals when future demand is so uncertain, says McNulty. Whether it is electric vehicle batteries or solar panels, 鈥渢he change in technology is happening exponentially faster than how we mine鈥�, he says.

Despite its hostility towards renewable energy, the Trump Administration has made boosting US critical mineral production a key part of its agenda. Last week, the Department of Energy (DOE) nearly a billion dollars in funding for unconventional mining efforts, including $250 million focused on recovering minerals from mining byproducts.

A spokesperson for the DOE says these mine tailings are 鈥渁n important domestic opportunity鈥� and could help the US diversify its sources of critical minerals and materials.

However, this doesn鈥檛 preclude support for new mines, said the agency鈥檚 undersecretary during a workshop about the DOE鈥檚 strategy on 20 August. 鈥淲e should never apologize for our modern way of life or our abundance of natural resources,鈥� he said.