CLIMATE researchers are forecasting that El Nin藴no, the periodic
reversal of wind and ocean currents in the tropical Pacific, is about to
return for a record fourth year, bringing continued drought in Australia and
Brazil and forest fires across Indonesia.
The convulsion, which alters the weather across half the globe, occurs when
warm water in the western Pacific surges east towards the Americas. Water
warmer than 30 掳C is currently moving eastward across the Pacific.
El Nin藴o normally lasts for a few months every four to five years,
but it has now appeared every year since 1991. Forecasts compiled at the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US now predict that it
will intensify during the coming six months.
Tim Barnett at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California
predicts a “particularly strong” El Nin藴o next year, with sea
temperatures up to 2 掳C higher than usual in places. British researchers
at the Hadley Centre in Bracknell, part of the Meteorological Office, predict
a more moderate El Nin藴o, abating in mid-1995.
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