El Ni単o is encouraging the development of tropical cyclones across the Pacific. This image from 2 September shows a typhoon (Kilo), a hurricane (Jimena), a tropical storm (Ignacio) and a tropical depression (14E) all developing simultaneously NASA/NOAA GOES Project Science team
The world is preparing for a massive El Ni単o that could be the strongest since 1998. That event led to the deaths of an estimated 20,000 people and caused almost $100 billion of damage. The economic and human cost of this year’s event is already starting to mount.
El Ni単o emerges when winds blowing west across the Pacific weaken, and warm water spreads out east towards South America, dragging rainfall with it. As a result, chunks of Asia and Australia dry out, and rain is dumped on much of the Americas. The effects are felt further afield too, especially in Africa. El Ni単os are irregular, developing at intervals of two to seven years and lasting between nine months and two years.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the International Federation of the Red Cross has as extreme flooding is predicted to worsen food shortages. This week, some areas there are . Chile and Peru are likely to be hit hard and are .
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Already, El Ni単o has contributed to hundreds of deaths in a heatwave in India by delaying the cooling monsoon. India is now in the midst of the worst dengue fever outbreak in years, with 500 confirmed cases and at least 25 deaths in New Delhi. Dengue is exacerbated by warmer temperatures and to El Ni単o in other parts of Asia.
This month, El Ni単o pushed temperatures up to near-record levels in eastern Australia. In Indonesia, illegal slash-and-burn fires used to clear land are spreading uncontrolled, stoked by the dry, hot conditions. The fires have caused the closure of 7000 schools in nearby Malaysia.
California, which is currently burning with the worst wildfire season in the state’s history, is expected to see more rain as El Ni単o develops, but it could go too far and cause floods, as it did in 1998.
“The worst is yet to come,” says at CSIRO, Australia’s national research agency in Melbourne. Some of the most severe effects will likely be in the form of tropical storms, he says, which are not only caused by El Ni単o but exacerbated by its strength.
The El Ni単o will intensify in the coming months and probably peak around February. The rains are yet to hit Africa and South America; marine impacts such as coral bleaching are expected to begin around December.
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