It is now less than six months before the world’s nations gather in Brazil for the COP30 climate summit, where observers hope to see key action on halting global warming. But with skyrocketing accommodation prices, distracted world leaders and accusations that the meeting’s Brazilian hosts are dodging the difficult topics, is COP30 in crisis?
This year’s meeting is particularly important, coming a decade after countries struck the Paris Agreement, the landmark climate deal designed that pledged to keep warming below 2°C or, ideally, 1.5°C. While the latter goal looks increasingly out of reach, the Paris process means all nations are required to submit fresh, more ambitious climate plans this year outlining their strategies to cut emissions up to 2035.
Brazil, then, must play a key role. After a turbulent few years under the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, a populist who promoted the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, the choice of the city of Belém – which borders the Amazon – to host COP30 marks a clear change of intent from current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. And with recent COP meetings held in authoritarian nations and petrostates, where freedoms of protest and speech were heavily restricted, expectations are high that Brazil’s summit will usher in a new wave of optimism and energy for the climate movement.
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“I think COP30 will be an inflection moment,” says at the Brazilian climate NGO Observatório do Clima. “We are in a tipping point for the science – if we really want to keep the 1.5°C [goal] within reach – we need to accelerate efforts.”
But with just months to go before the summit kicks off, that optimism is under threat. Under current climate pledges, warming will escalate to 2.6°C by the end of the century. Campaigners say it is critical that the next round of countries’ climate plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – ramp up to bring that number closer to the 2°C upper limit set by the Paris Agreement.
Yet nations have so far been slow to come forward with their new action plans. A deadline to deliver new NDCs by early February has passed, and so far just 21 countries have submitted their plans. Major emitters like the European Union – whose 27 member countries produce and submit a joint NDC – and China are yet to deliver. Meanwhile, corporate enthusiasm for climate action appears to be waning, with firms including HSBC, BP, Unilever and Shell watering down their climate goals.
As the COP30 host, it is Brazil’s job to apply pressure to countries and companies to move further and faster on climate. But insiders say there is still no clear strategy for what the Brazilian COP presidency wants out of the summit, with little backroom negotiation underway to press for more motivated NDCs. A series of open letters from the presidency outlining its vision for the summit have been described by observers as vague and abstract, with little in the way of concrete aims for the meeting.
There is a general sense that Brazil wants to focus on protecting forests and bolstering climate finance for poorer nations. But tougher issues are stuck on the sidelines. Privately, those close to the talks say Brazil seems to be dodging the question of how to accelerate emissions cuts and say the team is seeking to lower expectations for what the summit can achieve. In public, the meeting’s CEO Ana Toni said at an event in March that for climate action, while the summit’s President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago that fresh institutions beyond COP are needed to accelerate the “implementation” of the Paris Agreement.
The other elephant in the room: fossil fuels. At COP28 in Dubai, nations promised the world would “transition away from fossil fuels”, but since then the conversation around how to deliver that transition has barely advanced. Brazil is the world’s seventh-largest oil producer, but that it would “welcome” discussion on how a transition away from those fuels would be delivered.
Yet climate campaigners are frustrated that there seems to be no hint of that discussion on the COP30 agenda. “Brazil would be in a very good position to convene an international discussion around phase-out timelines,” says at international NGO 350.org. He wants to see the issue prioritised as part of a final “cover” decision, or become one of the pillars of the opening leader’s segment. “So far we have heard hardly anything in that direction from the Brazilians,” he says. “I think they shy away from bold leadership so far.”
One problem may be domestic politics. Brazil has the left-leaning Lula at its helm, but it also has a conservative Congress agitating for weaker environmental protections and a ministerial team divided on the country’s green agenda, says Herschmann. This is “dangerous” for the role of COP presidency, she warns.
Yet among the angst, there are reasons to hope that many nations are about to swing into action. The EU is set to produce a late but aggressive NDC, promising emissions cuts of 90 per cent by 2040. China is positioning itself to take over the role of COP major player from the US, with that Xi Jinping will attend COP30 in person, his first such summit since COP21 in Paris 10 years ago. If that’s the case, a high-aiming NDC from China might be on the cards, such as promising absolute emissions cuts in the region of 20-25 per cent by 2040. That, in turn, could unlock more drive from other nations like India, while guaranteeing the global spotlight for Belém.
Meanwhile, although few NDCs have been forthcoming, those that have emerged are high-quality, says Sieber, featuring targets to drive emissions cuts across various sectors of the economy. “There’s a clear quality shift in NDCs,” he says. “It means that countries are grappling with how they plan this [transition]”.
The economic winds are also blowing in favour of stronger action. Clean energy is attracting double the investment of fossil fuels, while 1 in 5 new cars sold worldwide is now electric. With the direction of travel clear, it becomes easier for a COP presidency to convince countries that more sweeping action makes economic as well as climate sense, especially if development banks and other financing institutions are also on board. COP30 is the last chance for countries to submit new NDCs, so leadership from Brazil in the coming months could make all the difference.
The final hurdle for COP30 is the choice of host city. Belém may be the gateway to the Amazon, but it is not a city well-equipped to handle a conference of 50,000 people. Accommodation prices have soared, intensifying concerns that Indigenous leaders, youth activists and other civil society groups – the very people COP30 promised to welcome – will be priced out of attendance.
Yet for this complication, at least, it seems the Brazilians have a clear plan. An accommodation platform is expected to launch by the end of the month, promising to cater to all budgets. In the interim, green groups have leveraged their global networks to organise group accommodation, while others plan to send smaller teams. Privately, many attendees welcome the opportunity for a slimmed-down COP with fewer lobbyists and side events.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil said the presidency was still consulting with stakeholders on its COP30 strategy, including on key issues such as the transition away from fossil fuels. “While some may interpret this as a lack of clarity, it reflects Brazil’s commitment to building consensus and aligning with diverse perspectives before finalizing its approach,” they said. “Brazil remains committed to delivering meaningful outcomes at the summit and will articulate its priorities more concretely once consultations are complete.”
It added that it was assembling a “dedicated group” of officials to provide information and support with arranging accommodation in Belém at UN meetings scheduled for the coming months. “We are aware of the concerns regarding accommodation costs in Belém and take them seriously,” the spokesperson said. “The Presidency remains committed to delivering on its promise of an inclusive summit experience”.
A decade on from the triumph of the Paris Agreement, the world is on the cusp of breaching one of the treaty’s central goals. But COP30 must answer the question: where can the climate movement go from here? Time is running out for Brazil to deliver an answer.
