Compare these two scenes: on 16 January, Blue Origin鈥檚 New Glenn rocket triumphantly reached orbit for the first time, while SpaceX鈥檚 Starship burst into flames above the Atlantic Ocean. You might think that the established space company, Elon Musk鈥檚 SpaceX, has suffered a setback, while Jeff Bezos鈥檚 Blue Origin is in the ascendancy. The reality is more complicated, but it is true that SpaceX鈥檚 dominance may be under threat.
New Glenn鈥檚 launch comes after decades in development and numerous delays and setbacks. The rocket can launch roughly double the mass of SpaceX鈥檚 smaller Falcon 9 rocket, which has been the go-to vehicle for governments and companies looking to launch their satellites into Earth orbit, and can also beat the capabilities of Falcon Heavy, SpaceX鈥檚 current top rocket in commercial operation.
With a successful flight under its belt, Blue Origin is now one step closer to launching payloads commercially. 鈥淔alcon is the workhorse of the world, and New Glenn opens up another opportunity,鈥� says , an independent consultant in the space industry.
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That could expand the number of customers able to reach space, and lower prices. 鈥淭here is currently too much demand for Falcon to support,鈥� says Forcyzk. 鈥淥ne of the reasons why SpaceX has been as profitable as it has been is because it can set its own prices.鈥�
But having a rocket that works isn鈥檛 enough 鈥� it must also launch frequently enough to attract customers. SpaceX currently has a huge incumbent advantage, having flown more than 400 times in the past decade, says at the UK Space Agency.
Blue Origin is reportedly aiming to complete 6 to 8 launches this year, which is still far below the 133 launches SpaceX completed in 2024. Whether it will catch up to SpaceX depends on the internal motivations of the company, says Forcyzk. 鈥淥ne of the criticisms of Blue Origin is that under the previous CEO, they were operating more like an R&D company,鈥� she says, rather than one focused on commercial services and competing for market share with SpaceX.
In 2023, Blue Origin installed a new CEO, Dave Limp, who previously worked at another of Jeff Bezos鈥檚 companies, Amazon. This suggests there could be a change in internal motivation and company culture that would make Blue Origin pursue more ambitious goals, but this change 鈥渞emains to be seen鈥�, says Forcyzk.
And all of this ignores another key factor 鈥� Starship is SpaceX鈥檚 next-generation rocket. The company is still iterating on its design and expects that some flights will end in 鈥渞apid unscheduled disassembly鈥�, as Musk euphemistically refers to explosions. If SpaceX can successfully demonstrate the rocket鈥檚 reliability, it will secure future work from organisations like NASA, which needs Starship to land astronauts on the moon as part of its Artemis programme.
But that鈥檚 a big if, and SpaceX鈥檚 鈥渇ail fast鈥� approach, which paid off in developing 聽its Falcon rockets, may not work so well for Starship, says at the University of Southampton, UK.
鈥淪tarship as a whole is just more complex than Falcon, in lots of different ways. They鈥檙e returning essentially the second stage [of the rocket], that makes it very hard. So that complexity, I don鈥檛 think works with the fail fast and iterate approach,鈥� says Lewis.
Signs of Blue Origin pulling ahead may be just a few months away. Like SpaceX, the company has been tasked by NASA with landing on the moon, initially with uncrewed spacecraft ahead of a potential 2030 crewed mission. A prototype version of its Blue Moon lunar lander is due to take off on a New Glenn rocket in March, while the launch of a NASA probe to Mars is also on the schedule this year 鈥� suggesting strong confidence in a brand new rocket.
鈥淣ew Glenn demonstrating the ability to launch to lunar space, and to the lunar surface, would open up direct competition with Starship,鈥� says Forcyzk.
