Humanoid robots are poised to enter warehouses, automotive factories and even some homes in growing numbers in 2025 鈥� but whether they can really take hold remains to be seen.
The machines in this new revolution will be different to existing working robots, which are primarily lone arms doing repetitive motions on assembly lines or wheeled bots navigating warehouses. Humanoid robots with two arms and legs should fit more easily into spaces designed for humans, but pulling that off will require much better artificial intelligence to handle such unpredictable environments. The hope is that recent advances in AI can be put to work in this way.
鈥淭here is a lot of optimism that ChatGPT-level models for robotics will soon be upon us,鈥� says at Northwestern University in Illinois.
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In both the US and China, a huge range of companies are planning to put humanoid robots to work in 2025. 鈥淲hile humanoids have been around for a long time, we鈥檝e never seen anything like this,鈥� says Colgate.
First, there are the robots coming to car factories, which are already well experienced in using robot arms. The California-based start-up Figure 鈥� with financial backing from OpenAI, Microsoft and Nvidia 鈥� tested its humanoid robots in a BMW factory this year, with plans for a larger deployment in 2025. Texas-based Apptronik has been testing its Apollo robot in Mercedes-Benz facilities with the goal of commercialising the robot by the end of 2025. And Elon Musk has claimed that his company Tesla will begin producing its Optimus robot for internal use before the end of the coming year.
Warehouses could also soon be swarming with humanoid robots. Oregon-based Agility Robotics has trialled its Digit humanoid robot in Amazon facilities and already has units working commercially for a firm called GXO Logistics. In 2025, it plans to manufacture hundreds more robots ready to be put to work, with the capacity to eventually scale up to 10,000 robots per year.
In China, where the government has declared 2025 a year for humanoid robot innovation, dozens of companies are racing to deploy their machines. For example, the Shanghai- based company Fourier has already delivered more than 100 humanoid GR-1 robots to manufacturing facilities and research institutions and in 2025 will focus on selling an upgraded GR-2 robot for more diverse uses.
Even ordinary homes could see robot helpers. The US-Norwegian company 1X 鈥� another robotics start-up backed by OpenAI 鈥� plans for its NEO robot to start organising and tidying homes during pilot tests in 2025.
So is this the beginning of a world that runs on robots? Maybe not. 鈥淧eople are still pretty cheap replacements for humanoid robots 鈥� I don鈥檛 see many big applications where a humanoid makes economic sense,鈥� says at Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania. 鈥淭he 鈥榢iller鈥� app is when a humanoid form is highly desirable, [such as] care and companionship robots.鈥�
One of the biggest issues for humanoid robots still yet to be solved is fully replicating the human hand. 鈥淩obot hands are just now getting pretty good at grasping, but human hands do so much more 鈥� we use them to manipulate the world in endlessly clever ways,鈥� says Colgate. 鈥淚 will be pleasantly surprised if humanoid robots become prevalent in any application, no matter how niche, in the next decade.鈥� That means many human jobs should remain safely out of robot hands, for now.
