On 21 November a new Russian weapon hit the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, with 36 projectiles descending at high velocity like meteors through the clouds. Russia鈥檚 president Vladimir Putin said this was the first test of a new ballistic missile called Oreshnik and that more would follow.
Ukraine is seeking ways to neutralise the threat. While it has stopped other Russian attacks, including short-range ballistic missiles, this one will be more challenging. Like other ballistic missiles, Oreshnik climbs on a high arc out of Earth鈥檚 atmosphere. In space, six warheads separate from the carrier vehicle and descend separately, each releasing six submunitions. Putin claimed the warheads came down at Mach 10, or more than 3 kilometres per second. These were probably not explosive, but caused damage as a result of the sheer kinetic energy they have.
Oreshnik, which means 鈥渉azel tree鈥�, is classed as an intermediate-range weapon. Its general characteristics, as well as evidence from missile debris, indicate it is a variant of the RS-26 Rubezh nuclear missile that was first revealed in 2011. Multi-warhead missiles have existed since 1970, but their high cost means they have always been reserved for nuclear payloads. In the mid-2000s, the US proposed repurposing its multi-warhead Trident missiles for rapid conventional strike, but didn鈥檛 go ahead with the idea.
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鈥淚t鈥檚 not shocking, it鈥檚 not unexpected, but it is different,鈥� says at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California . 鈥淭he Russians have done something that the US only talked about.鈥�
Though not impossible as Putin claims, intercepting the missile would be difficult. Oreshnik ascends to a higher altitude than short-range missiles, putting it out of reach of Ukraine鈥檚 Patriot missiles. But the US at least does possess defences built to counter intermediate-range ballistic missiles. They include Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD), which intercepts missiles during descent or re-entry, and SM-3, a ship-based surface-to-air missile.
, which supplied it with Patriot, to acquire THAAD. at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK defence think tank, warns this might not be sufficient against the rain of warheads.
鈥淭he fact that the missile appears to carry MIRVs (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) would likely complicate terminal-phase defence, meaning that mid-course defence, relying on interceptors like SM-3, is likely most viable,鈥� says Kaushal.
However, the SM-3 is a naval system. Adapting it to a land-based launcher in Ukraine might not be quick or simple. This is why Lewis believes that rather than trying to intercept the missiles in flight, Ukraine needs to destroy them on the ground. 鈥淭hey need to shoot the archer, not the arrow,鈥� says Lewis.
It is also worth asking just how dangerous Oreshnik really is without a nuclear warhead. The strike targeted a plant producing spacecraft and rockets, which had been struck previously. Lewis estimates that Oreshnik has an accuracy of a few hundred metres, sufficient for a nuclear warhead, but conventional strikes need more precision. High-resolution satellite images show little sign of new damage.
鈥淭he buildings are still standing. The strike may have done some additional damage to the buildings, but I don鈥檛 see much,鈥� says Lewis.
Plunging vertically downwards, the projectiles may have embedded themselves deep in the ground with little surface effect.
and more launches will follow. But such weapons can only be made in small numbers at high cost.
鈥淵ou have to ask whether Russia really wants to use these very expensive systems to cause limited amounts of damage,鈥� says Lewis.
This strike looks like a warning shot to highlight Russia鈥檚 nuclear capability, with the country鈥檚 news media to Berlin, Paris and London.
Putin may be hoping the new weapon will intimidate Ukraine and the West. Ukraine will be hoping that defensive missiles, drone strikes or the Oreshnik鈥檚 lack of effectiveness will negate any perceived threat. One report suggests Ukrainian long-range drones in Russia where the missile was launched.
The Oreshnik strike was spectacular and the missile will be difficult to stop. But it doesn鈥檛 look like the war-winning weapon that Putin wanted.
