
èƵs who study the climate work with data that goes back thousands of years and build models that project centuries into the future. Meanwhile, CEOs and politicians base their decisions on business, political and news cycles. Can we reconcile this gap? A new gathering is going to try.
This week, world leaders will arrive in New York for the , one of the most ambitious international conferences ever convened. It aims to cover everything from war to the economy, climate change to artificial intelligence.
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Present and future generations need exactly this kind of ambition. But in the face of fierce rivalry and broken trust between nations, and on the eve of a pivotal US election, world leaders will certainly fail to agree a major breakthrough. However, among the high-level outcomes of the summit is a seed of potentially radical transformation: a ““, which would commit countries to safeguarding the needs and interests of future citizens.
Why do the interests of generations to come matter? Scholars are increasingly focused on governance tools that help overcome the temporal gap between the problems we face and the decision-making systems we use. It is that giving future generations a voice and ensuring that politicians listen can, under certain conditions, move the dial on some of the long-term issues facing our societies, like climate change and ageing populations.
We need new tools because our political systems were never designed to solve these “long problems”, which span nations and generations. For example, with an issue like climate change, leaders need to act to prevent it well before its effects have fully been felt. In the meantime, politicians also have a pile of short-term crises on their to-do lists. But this means long problems have been left to fester and grow. The only solution is to get ahead of them.
It gives me hope that this is already happening in some places around the world. Countries from Finland to Kenya already have parliamentary committees for the future that examine legislation in terms of how it could affect future citizens. These tools can make a political difference. In August, for example, the South Korean constitutional court became the latest tribunal to order its government to establish stronger long-term climate targets to protect future generations.
Momentum is building. Wales broke ground in 2015 as the first country to establish an independent commissioner for future generations, tasked with scrutinising government decisions for future effects on the well-being of the Welsh people. One of the key accomplishments of this policy has been the creation of a longer-term healthcare strategy for Wales that emphasises prevention, saving lives and money. This year, the European Union will become the largest jurisdiction to appoint a similar role.
The radical potential of the Declaration on Future Generations is to muster these piecemeal reforms into a major revolution towards more long-term policy-making across the globe. The UN has catalysed these kinds of transformations in the past – just look at the in 1948, which helped turn a loose set of moral principles into a robust system of law around the world.
It would be difficult to argue that the geopolitical landscape is more fraught than it was in 1948, when the cold war was beginning. Could this new declaration seed a similar transformation to address long problems?
That depends on what governments and societies do next. But the long view teaches us that big transformations often grow from ideas that, once stated and agreed upon, can’t be denied.
Thomas Hale is at the Blavatnik School of Government, UK. He is the author of