All four of Ukraine鈥檚 operational nuclear power plants have suffered occupation or attack by Russian forces since the start of the invasion in 2022. Now, as Ukrainian troops on the counteroffensive push deeper into Russian territory, roles could be reversed if Ukraine decides to take control of a Russian plant.
According to the Ukrainian government, its troops are , almost 10 kilometres inside the border. This brings them within 70 kilometres of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) 鈥� one of Russia鈥檚 three biggest. The plant has two operational reactors, of a design similar to those used at Chernobyl in Ukraine, which date back to the 1960s. A further two more modern reactors are under construction, a type similar to those found at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) near the Ukrainian city of Enerhodar.
With Russia having gone to great lengths to seize Ukrainian reactors, will Ukraine relish the chance to turn the tables? Not likely, according to one Ukrainian scientist with a history of working at the Chernobyl site who says the elderly reactors were not worth occupying. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want such garbage,鈥� they said, speaking anonymously for fear of Russian reprisal.
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But if Ukrainian forces continue to make swift gains in the Kursk region, they may be forced to decide the fate of the Russian plant. International Atomic Energy Agency director general Rafael Mariano Grossi has already spoken out about the risk. 鈥淚 would like to appeal to all sides to exercise maximum restraint in order to avoid a nuclear accident with the potential for serious radiological consequences,鈥� he said in a . 鈥淚 am personally in contact with the relevant authorities of both countries and will continue to be seized of the matter.鈥�
at King鈥檚 College London says the Geneva Convention demands that countries take care around 鈥渋nstallations containing dangerous forces鈥� such as nuclear power plants, but that such agreements tend to be adhered to only as long as it is convenient.
Strategically, holding the plant would be an unnecessary drain on Ukrainian military resources, says Peel. 鈥淭he Russian army is quite slow moving, but when it arrives it鈥檚 quite a force to be reckoned with,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 want to be stuck there trying to hold this thing.鈥�
What about simply shutting it down to deprive Russia of energy?听 at Bangor University, UK, says that KNPP, like many nuclear plants, must remain supplied with electricity to keep its electrical cooling systems running safely, even when shut down. Without cooling, the fuel in a powered-down plant could potentially heat up to such an extent that it ruptures the reactor and leaks radioactive material, says Williams. 鈥淣ot dramatically as in the case of Chernobyl, but possibly more akin to what happened at Fukushima,鈥� he says. Ultimately, cutting power to KNPP could risk Ukraine losing the moral high ground, says Peel.
Williams says the best course of action if Ukraine ended up in control of KNPP would be to leave things well alone; allow skilled staff to stay and avoid disrupting the power grid. Indeed, a second Ukrainian scientist, still working near Chernobyl,听says that Ukraine probably does not have the expertise needed to run the Russian plant, given the way its design has evolved since the days of Chernobyl.
鈥淭he staff [in Ukraine] who know how to operate the RBMK units are either retired or have already passed away,鈥� they say, speaking anonymously. 鈥淭here were a lot of safety improvements in other reactor systems. The Kursk [reactors are] now significantly far from the past sister units [at Chernobyl]. All this means that Ukraine would not [be able to] safely operate the Kursk Power Plant.鈥�
A Ukrainian expert in nuclear safety who previously worked at Zaporizhzhia, and asked to remain anonymous, told 快猫短视频 that holding the Kursk facility would bring additional challenges. 鈥淲e [would] need other power structures, like the police and a lot of civilians,鈥� they say. Ultimately, taking a nuclear power plant requires occupying a lot of surrounding territory in a way that may be a low priority for the Ukrainian military. 鈥淚 think they have other objectives,鈥� they say.
Regardless of whether Ukraine moves on Kursk, Peel says the fact that nuclear power plants have become battlegrounds is causing waves in nuclear safety circles. Traditionally, plants have been designed to withstand criminal or terrorist attacks, he says, but now the world is having to contend with the idea that states could attack other states鈥� plants.
鈥淭he more facilities there are in more countries, then the more risky this potentially becomes,鈥� says Peel. 鈥淚鈥檝e seen people asking if this means that we should have no more nuclear power, because it鈥檚 too risky.鈥�
But ultimately, it is in both Ukraine鈥檚 and Russia鈥檚 interests to avoid a nuclear incident, says Williams. 鈥淲hy would they [Russia] want to spread radioactivity around their own area? If the wind was blowing, it would blow towards Moscow,鈥� he says. He hopes that Ukraine would recognise that it has a 鈥渕oral responsibility to behave differently鈥� than Russia has done with Ukrainian plants.
