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Parts of Texas and Mexico were hit by flooding this week driven by Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named storm of what is forecast to be an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season. While overall damages weren鈥檛 especially severe, the long-term economic consequences from the storm and others like it could prove to be much more significant.

鈥淲e鈥檙e learning more and more every year about the ways in which the scars of natural disasters and extreme climate events can be really persistent,鈥� says at Stanford University in California.

Heavy rains from Alberto, which made landfall on 20 June, caused severe flooding in inland parts of north-eastern Mexico, killing , even as it brought relief from a drought. Rain and storm surge also drove flooding on the Gulf Coast of Texas, leading to a disaster from the state鈥檚 governor.

But such direct damages to people, buildings and other infrastructure are just the beginning of the story. How people and governments respond to the destruction can shift local economies for years.

To estimate these long-term effects, Callahan and his colleagues looked at changes in per capita income after tropical cyclones in US counties over the past four decades, using wind speeds as a measure of exposure to the storms. They then used a statistical method to compare incomes within counties, both with and without the influence of the storms.

In most cases, they found per capita incomes declined for years following a county鈥檚 exposure to a storm, with incomes not recovering even five years later in some places. 鈥淸Rebuilding] takes money,鈥� says Callahan. 鈥淭hat takes time away from other things. Over time, that results in a depression of their income level relative to how it would have continued to grow without this major shock.鈥�

Taken together, lost incomes in US counties amounted to $15 trillion to $40 trillion between 1980 and 2019, an amount at least 10 times greater than the direct damages from the storms, the researchers found.

鈥淭hat number is huge,鈥� says at Florida Gulf Coast University, adding that it is several times greater than her estimates of the total direct damages from major hurricanes in the US even over the past 120 years.

The paper has not yet been peer reviewed, and Callahan calls it a 鈥渧ery provisional鈥� estimate; results may also not apply in cases like Alberto where damages were driven by flooding rather than wind. But he says it is a 鈥渦seful exercise鈥� to measure the true impact of tropical cyclones, which are becoming stronger with climate change.

Those persistent economic damages aren鈥檛 a given, however. The researchers also found that many counties that saw the strongest storms actually saw an increase in income in following years 鈥� these were the places that received disaster relief from the federal government to address storm damage. Insurance payouts and economic activity from rebuilding also contributed.

鈥淭hat does speak to our ability for some degree of climate adaptation,鈥� says Callahan, adding that it could make sense to expand disaster aid for storms and other climate-related hazards with long-lasting indirect effects, such as heat waves and wildfire smoke.