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Swapping out polluting gas boilers for electric heating systems is one of the key milestones for achieving net-zero emissions and decarbonising the global climate. But progress to decarbonise heating, particularly in the UK, is worryingly slow.
Earlier this month, the National Audit Office (NAO), the UK鈥檚 public spending watchdog, warned that the country鈥檚 ability to meet its climate goals is threatened by the the main green heating technology for domestic properties.
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In 2022, just 55,000 heat pumps were sold in the UK, according to the country鈥檚 Heat Pump Association, one of the lowest installation rates of any major European country. For the UK to hit its climate goals, annual sales need to increase 11-fold to 600,000 within just four years, and more than double again by 2035, the NAO points out.
It isn鈥檛 just the UK that is behind schedule. In the US, heat pump sales outstripped those of gas boilers in 2022 for the first time, but the suggests sales slowed last year. Climate campaigners say installations need to by the end of the decade.
What鈥檚 going wrong, what we can learn from other countries to do better? Here are a few ideas.
Clear up the policy mess
The UK does have policies in place to drive the uptake of domestic heat pumps, including the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which offers households up to 拢7500 off the cost of replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump.
But other government policies pull in the opposite direction: in September last year, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delayed a ban on the installation of new gas boilers, from 2026 to 2035. Meanwhile, industry must wait until 2026 to hear the government鈥檚 vision of the role of hydrogen in home heating, a potential rival to air source heat pumps in homes. A large proportion of domestic heat pump installations also require planning permission, adding delays, cost and bureaucracy to the purchase process.
The policy uncertainty 鈥渋s one of the most significant hurdles鈥� facing the heat pump rollout, says at the Regulatory Assistance Project, a global NGO. He says installers are holding off on investing in scaling up their operations and developing new product offerings because of a lack of clear direction from policy-makers.
It doesn鈥檛 have to be this way. In the Netherlands, heat pump installations jumped by 57 per cent in 2022 to 110,000, after the government confirmed a new rule banning the installation of gas boilers after 2026 鈥� a move Rosenow said has provided 鈥渓ong-term certainty鈥� for the market.
Meanwhile, the US state of Maine is installing heat pump technology at three times the average rate in the US, driven by generous state rebates cutting the upfront cost of installation, the comparatively high price of heating oil and ambitious state targets. In July 2023, Maine鈥檚 governor, Janet Mills, announced that the state had met a target to install 100,000 heat pumps by 2025, two years ahead of schedule, and set a fresh goal to install a further 175,000 by 2027.
Offer a warm home guarantee
Most of us don鈥檛 like to think about our heating systems. We just want to feel warm. Many people in the UK haven鈥檛 even heard of heat pumps 鈥� around 30 per cent of respondents to a government survey in 2023 had never heard, or hardly knew anything, about the need to change the way homes are heated to reach net zero.
As a consumer, installing a heat pump isn鈥檛 a straightforward process. It can take weeks to organise the necessary home assessments to design a heat pump system for your home before the installation can be booked in. Installers often disagree on the size of system needed, and even a property鈥檚 suitability for a heat pump.
Dustin Benton, a green policy expert, wrote in a recent that he found it 鈥渘early impossible鈥� to find clear advice about whether a heat pump would work effectively in his terraced London home. Bamboozled by talks of COP ratings, EPC documents and pipe diameters, would-be heat pump owners would be forgiven for backing out of such a costly, seemingly complicated purchase in favour of the gas boiler they are familiar with. 鈥淢anufacturers and installers need to make it easy for potential consumers to feel confident that a heat pump will 鈥榡ust work鈥�,鈥� Benton wrote.
Some manufacturers are taking note. Last year, Swedish company Aira started selling heat pumps to customers in Germany, the UK and Italy for a monthly fee instead of upfront installation costs. Aira promises a 鈥渉assle-free鈥� switch within 30 days, and its installations come with a 15-year 鈥渃omfort guarantee鈥�, promising home temperatures of 18掳C to 22掳C even on the coldest days of the year.
Cut the running costs
The UK鈥檚 鈥渟park gap鈥� 鈥� the difference in price between electricity and gas 鈥� is one of the largest in Europe, with electricity 3.8 times more expensive per unit than gas. This means heat pumps are often more expensive to run compared with gas boilers, despite their higher efficiency.
Cutting the cost of electricity would instantly make heat pumps a more attractive heating option for households, says Rosenow. After all, 鈥渋f it鈥檚 not going to save you any money, why would people want to go through the hassle of changing their heating system?鈥� he asks.
The UK government has promised to narrow the spark gap by shifting levies and charges from electricity to gas, but work to determine the exact policy approach has already been delayed by two years.
In the meantime, academics and industry are working on making heat pumps as cheap to run as possible, within the existing energy system.
In September, UK energy firm Octopus unveiled a new heat pump, the Cosy 6. The heat pump is designed to cut running costs as far as possible, with smart controls and a dedicated time of use tariff to take advantage of periods when grid power is cheap.
鈥淵ou can put in a heat pump today, with smart controls and a smart tariff, and you are already saving money relative to a gas boiler on a standard variable tariff,鈥� says at Octopus Energy.
Meanwhile, at the University of Liverpool, UK, and his colleagues are developing a new 鈥渇lexible鈥� heat pump with a water tank and heat exchanger to capture and store excess heat from the pump鈥檚 operation. 鈥淵ou can fully charge this heat storage and then periodically use this heat as a source,鈥� says Yu. 鈥淲e have energy recovery in the design, and in doing so we can improve the energy efficiency and reduce the power consumption.鈥�
that Yu鈥檚 flexible heat pump could improve efficiency by 5 to 10 per cent in a real-world environment, delivering a significant saving on running costs with only a marginal increase in manufacturing costs. Yu is now working with industry to commercialise the design.
Each country will face its own unique challenges when it comes to speeding up the rollout of green heating. But the UK鈥檚 experience provides a useful guide to what is necessary for heat pump success: a clear and cohesive policy environment, a straightforward buying experience and a financial incentive to make the switch.
