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Exposure to rising levels of wildfire smoke could lead to more than 10,000 additional deaths each year in the US by 2050. This could make deaths due to wildfire smoke the costliest consequence of climate change for the country, accounting for nearly as much economic damage as all other climate-related impacts combined.

鈥淚t completely reshapes how we think about the climate impact in the US,鈥� says at Stanford University in California. Exposure to extreme heat is set to be the deadliest consequence of climate change globally, spurring efforts to both cut emissions and adapt to the heat. Wildfire smoke should be treated with the same urgency, he says.

Smoke from larger and more frequent wildfires across the country 鈥� driven in part by rising temperatures and drought 鈥� has already led to worsening air quality in the US over the past several years. But the number of additional deaths caused by the smoke, and how many deaths may occur in the future, remains unclear.

Past estimates have varied widely because 鈥渋t鈥檚 a very complex and long causal chain鈥�, says Qiu, and there are large uncertainties at every step.

Qiu and his colleagues used satellite and ground-based data on wildfire smoke in North America between 2006 and 2019 to model smoke exposure and related mortality. In contrast to previous studies, the researchers estimated mortality due to exposure to wildfire smoke specifically. The composition of wildfire smoke varies, as does the body鈥檚 response to various pollutants, which may make its impacts on health different from other types of air pollution.

The researchers estimate wildfire smoke caused about 15,800 deaths each year between 2011 and 2020. Depending on the amount of climate warming, the researchers project that would increase to 23,800 to 27,800 deaths each year in the US by the middle of the century. That would amount to about 700,000 deaths due to wildfire smoke between 2025 and then.

The additional 8000 to 12,000 deaths each year would make wildfire smoke the deadliest consequence of climate change in the US. It could also be the costliest. In monetary terms, the researchers found that 12,000 excess deaths each year would amount to $244 billion in annual damages 鈥� an amount comparable to the damages of all other climate impacts in the US combined.听

鈥淎s we continue looking at this over years and decades we鈥檙e going to see it鈥檚 way more expensive than we鈥檝e thought,鈥� says at Washington State University. She says these new estimates of mortality fall roughly between earlier estimates, but may offer more accuracy by modelling health effects specific to wildfire smoke.

at Colorado State University says looking at specific effects of wildfire smoke could offer something new, but the approach needs more vetting. Other uncertainties, such as how the amount of smoke changes as fires use up more fuel are also unresolved, he says.

Even the number of deaths currently caused by wildfire smoke remains uncertain. In another recent , for instance, at Yale University and her colleagues estimated that wildfire smoke already causes around 30,000 excess deaths each year, a number greater than the other team鈥檚 mid-century projection. 鈥淭he number is already high, but when we look into the future鈥� the number will go up,鈥� says Ma. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 quite alarming.鈥�