The collapse of several Mediterranean civilisations in the Late Bronze Age may have been caused by cascading instability across networks of political alliances and trade, according to simulations. That may hold lessons for preventing a similar disruption of the modern world鈥檚 global economy.
The Late Bronze Age collapse between 1200 and 1100 BC saw a number of civilisations crumble, including the Mycenaeans in Greece and the Hittites in Anatolia. Others, including Egypt鈥檚 New Kingdom, were left weakened by the collapse. Possible triggering factors include earthquakes, climate change, economic upheaval or even invasion by a mysterious group of so-called Sea Peoples.
Researchers have now simulated how the collapse of one or more civilisations could have impacted the broader Mediterranean region.
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鈥淚f we can model that type of collapse back in the Bronze Age鈥� we may learn lessons of resilience and how to recover from these disruptions,鈥� says at the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center in Mississippi.
Linkov and his colleagues developed a computer model of the Late Bronze Age by using archaeological evidence to map out political and trade links between civilisations, such as records of , mutual defence treaties and trade involving tin, copper, grain and various luxury goods.
Next, they tested all possible combinations of losing one, two or more civilisations, with the assumption that a civilisation would collapse after enough of the links it held with other civilisations had been disrupted.
The Bronze Age network could shrug off the collapse of a single civilisation, such as the historical case of the Minoan civilisation, centred on the Greek island of Crete, which went into a decline a few centuries before the Late Bronze Age collapse. The network could even survive most scenarios involving the loss of two civilisations.
But the entire network disintegrated if it lost either both the Hittites and Egyptian New Kingdom or both the Hittites and the international port city of Ugarit, located in what is now Syria.
A network science approach can help archaeologists 鈥渢o think more openly and even differently about people and polities鈥�, says at the University of Glasgow in the UK. But he describes the study as overemphasising the theme of collapse and is sceptical of the broader impact from the decline of the Hittites.
Such simulations necessarily simplify complex social processes, says at University College Dublin in Ireland. Still, he says the study makes a 鈥渃onvincing case鈥� about 鈥渢he impact from the loss of key players鈥� in networks.
Luckily, the interconnected modern world can better track threats such as climate change and has greater capability for international cooperation, says at the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, a coauthor of the study. 鈥淎s long as you鈥檙e talking with one another and trying to address these common problems, there鈥檚 a lot that you can do,鈥� he says.
Understanding how cascading network effects can lead to collapse is relevant given recent events such as the drone and missile attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea, says at the University of Bologna in Italy. But she also points out that, historically, collapses have given opportunities for new systems to emerge.
鈥淲e may certainly think of collapse in the past as a cautionary tale for the present and future 鈥� but also as providing a glimpse into human ingenuity and resilience, as no collapse is ever all-encompassing,鈥� says Dawson.
Global Environmental Change
