Planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions have been on the rise since the industrial revolution, and 2023 appears to have been no different. This year saw a more than 1 per cent increase in emissions from burning fossil fuels compared with 2022, according to the compiled by聽 at the University of Exeter in the UK and his colleagues.
But 2024 could see these emissions begin to decline for the first time, driven mainly by the unprecedented expansion of renewable energy and the shift to electric vehicles. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e starting to grow at the pace where they outpace energy demand growth,鈥� says at Climate Analytics, a German think tank. 鈥淎t that point, you start displacing fossil fuel growth.鈥�
Fyson and her colleagues three different global emissions scenarios. In two scenarios based on existing policy on fossil fuels and some action on other sources of greenhouse gases, emissions didn鈥檛 peak before 2025.
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But if the current trends in wind and solar energy and electric vehicle adoption are maintained, and countries live up to their pledges on cutting methane and other gases like hydrofluorocarbons, the researchers found it is more likely than not that total greenhouse gas emissions will start to decline in 2024. The analysis was done before the COP28 conference, where governments and companies made various pledges to slash emissions.
That would make 2023 鈥� in addition to its status as the hottest year on record 鈥� the year greenhouse gas emissions peaked. 鈥淲e know what we need to do. But we just need to do it,鈥� says Fyson.
The Climate Analytics scenario is more optimistic than others. For instance, it anticipates that demand for fossil fuels reached its peak in 2023, but the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that this may not happen until 2030 and oil-producing countries have forecast rising demand beyond then. There is also substantial uncertainty around emissions from changing land use, as well as questions about whether countries can be held accountable for methane and other emissions.
But Fyson says the IEA and other groups鈥� numbers are too conservative. 鈥淓very year, [the IEA] underestimates the roll-out of renewables in particular. We think things could move even faster than that.鈥�
Even if overall emissions don鈥檛 fall next year, emissions from generating electricity 鈥� the largest single source of emissions 鈥� will almost certainly peak. According to a report from UK energy think tank Ember, power sector emissions would have seen a nearly 3 per cent decline in 2023 were it not for drought driving historic deficits in hydropower. The continued growth of renewable energy means 2024 is almost sure to see a decline.
Either way, the world faces a steep path down from peak emissions to net-zero by the middle of the century. Fyson and her colleagues found the scenario that saw emissions peak in 2023 still left emissions in 2030 far above what would be in line with climate targets under the Paris Agreement. 鈥淧eaking is the first step,鈥� she says.
