Almost six months into his second spell as president of Brazil, Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva has begun to rein in the rampant destruction of the Amazon that was let loose by his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. But his efforts to save the rainforest could be scuppered by a right-wing Congress, experts say.
The first significant reduction in forest clearing came in April, when Amazon deforestation fell 68 per cent compared with the same month last year. May saw a smaller drop of 10 per cent, according to Brazil鈥檚 National Institute for Space Research. Overall, the first five months of the year have seen a 31 per cent drop in deforestation in comparison with those months in 2022.
Between 2019 and 2022, Bolsonaro publicly encouraged development in the Amazon, watered down environmental protections and gutted ministries responsible for conserving the rainforest. During his presidency, on the previous four years.
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Since taking office in January, Lula has restored funding for environmental protection and reappointed officials in key positions. From January to May, the environment agency Ibama imposed on 2255 farms on illegally deforested land and served 2 billion reals ($406 million) in fines for environmental crimes 鈥� up 160 per cent on the average yearly sanctions during Bolsonaro鈥檚 term.
Deforestation alerts 鈥� which occur when satellites detect changes in forest cover 鈥� began to decline shortly after enforcement efforts were ramped up, says at Brazil鈥檚 Climate Observatory.
Earlier this month, Lula to implement his pledge of ending illegal deforestation by 2030. He promised that intelligence agencies would do more to track down environmental crime and a new registry would be set up to monitor the management of forests that are most important to slowing climate change.
Brazil has also rebuilt relationships with international partners and , which has received donations worth hundreds of millions of dollars from foreign governments. A committee in the Senate that would allow Brazil to profit from protecting tropical forests by selling carbon credits to other nations.
鈥淟ula鈥檚 plan to fight climate change could be the most ambitious in the world as it combines ways to combat deforestation while also providing livelihoods for those who clear forests,鈥� says at the University of Oxford.
Lula aims to take back half of the protected lands being illegally exploited for logging, farming, mining and other activities, but it will take time to dismantle the armed gangs who expanded their control of the rainforest under Bolsonaro, says Ara煤jo. 鈥淭he problem is, the situation with environmental crime in the Amazon is much more complex to face than the one that existed two decades ago,鈥� she says.
A shift in the global climate will also make things harder, says Berenguer. Three years of the La Ni帽a weather phenomenon have given way to El Ni帽o, which is likely to cause drier conditions in the Amazon, facilitating forest fires.
In politics too, Lula faces great challenges, with a Congress dominated by right-wing parties and containing members with deep ties to agribusiness. On 1 June, Congress that strip the environment ministry of control of the rural property registry, which is used to monitor illegal deforestation, and prevent the newly created Indigenous ministry from demarcating territories where deforestation is strictly prohibited.
Congress will also vote all claims by Indigenous people to land they weren鈥檛 inhabiting before Brazil鈥檚 constitution came into force in 1988.
鈥淣efarious legislative proposals presented in previous years continue to be processed and threaten the forest, rivers, climate, Indigenous peoples and local communities,鈥� says Ara煤jo.
Conservation experts are also concerned that state-run oil company Petrobras is pushing to tap reserves in the Amazon and that deforestation is increasing in the Cerrado, the savannah bordering the Amazon.
The next few months will better reveal how much the surge in deforestation under Bolsonaro will spill over into Lula鈥檚 term. The dry season begins in the Amazon in July and many plots that were partially cleared under the previous administration could be burned for cattle ranching, says Berenguer.
