Six months ago, Europe was facing an energy crisis like no other. Spiking gas prices, driven in large part by Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, had sent energy costs soaring and sparked a worldwide scramble for energy supplies. Headlines warned of a winter of rolling blackouts and fuel shortages, a nightmare scenario that would crash Europe鈥檚 economy and endanger lives. 听
Compounding the problem was a once-in-500-year drought, which dramatically cut production of hydroelectricity and hit output from Europe鈥檚 already beleaguered network of nuclear power stations. This created an additional gap in generation , according to energy analyst Ember.听
Yet as the continent enters spring, it appears those doomsday predictions never came to pass. While millions of people suffered through a winter of cold homes, and factories reduced their output in response to high prices, the feared full meltdown never came to pass. So just how did Europe鈥檚 energy system cope with the crisis? And with Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine showing no signs of ending, can the continent repeat the same trick next winter? 听
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鈥淲e鈥檝e been lucky,鈥� says at the Hertie School in Germany. 鈥淚t was a relatively mild winter.鈥� A warm autumn meant biting cold arrived later in Europe than usual, and even those frigid days were short-lived. Temperatures across Europe over the new year hit record highs, nearing 20掳C in Warsaw, Poland, and 25掳C in Bilbao, Spain. The warm start to 2023 , but it dampened demand for central heating and gave energy suppliers a chance to top up gas storage tanks in case of a late cold snap. 听
The warm weather reduced demand, but high prices pushed energy users to cut back even further. Electricity consumption in the European Union fell by almost eight per cent in the final quarter of 2022, says Ember, a drop similar in scale to that seen in the first wave of coronavirus lockdowns. 听
In Germany, households and small businesses cut their gas use by more than 20 per cent, says Hirth, even after the mild winter is accounted for. Part of this 鈥渄emand destruction鈥� was driven by high prices, but there was also a sense of the public pulling together to weather the storm and support Ukraine, he says. 听
鈥淢y friends and family, people I know, they are all saving a lot of gas,鈥� says Hirth. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a big effort. It鈥檚 just very common that people put on two sweatshirts if they are cold.鈥�听
The drop in demand also meant a feared resurgence of coal failed to materialise. Leaders in the UK and EU ordered emergency coal plants to be on standby during winter, importing millions of tonnes of extra coal, but in the end coal-fired power generation increased by just one per cent in the EU during 2022. In the UK, it actually fell by 15 per cent. 听听
Instead of coal, renewables swooped in to save the day, according to Ember鈥檚 Harriet Fox. 鈥淲ind and solar performed massively well, and without them we鈥檇 have been even more reliant on a return to coal,鈥� she says. In particular, solar grew at a staggering rate. The EU added听a record 41GW of new capacity during 2022, . That helped to bolster green electricity generation; in the Netherlands for example, solar provided 14 per cent of electricity during 2022, overtaking coal for the first time. 听
But although energy analysts are relieved, there are no guarantees next winter will be plain sailing. For starters, now that energy prices are subsiding, demand is likely to rebound. Industry will start using more power as production lines return to full strength and households may become more liberal with their use of central heating. 听
For permanent demand reduction, governments must focus on encouraging people to install energy efficiency measures like extra insulation, heat pumps and double glazing, says Fox.
Continuing the rollout of renewables is also essential to ensure supply keeps up with growing demand, she says. Signs look promising 鈥� in December the EU approved emergency legislation to deploy solar and wind power quickly over the coming months.
But the weather could yet cause major disruption. Across parts of Europe, dry winter weather and sparse snowfall have sparked fears this summer could bring another intense drought. This would have severe consequences for the energy system, once again depleting hydropower production and curtailing nuclear generation. A hot summer could also push up demand for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning units, right at the moment Europe will need to be banking as much gas as possible for winter. 听
Yet Hirth remains optimistic the worst is over. 鈥淭here are extraordinary things, like a major terrorist attack, a major cyber attack on the gas infrastructure, or let鈥檚 say the coldest winter in 20 years 鈥� those things can happen, but it鈥檚 unlikely,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd save these black swan events, I don鈥檛 see how Europe could get in a situation that is in any way comparable to last year, where people were 鈥� for good reason 鈥� concerned about physical shortages.鈥� 听
