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Men predicted to outnumber women in physics until the year 2158

An analysis of nearly 5.5 million scientific papers has found that, on current trends, the proportion of women authoring research won't reach parity with men in some fields for over 100 years
Women writing equations on a board
Women are underrepresented in physics
Tapanakorn Katvong/EyeEm/Alamy

The number of women authoring scientific papers is increasing, but men still dominate overall and some fields won’t reach gender equity until the next century, according to a major analysis.

at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta and at the University of Montreal in Canada analysed nearly 5.5 million scientific papers published between 2008 and 2020, using a machine-learning algorithm to estimate the likelihood that a person’s name belonged to a man or woman.

Names that were 10 times as likely to be assigned to a man than a woman were considered to belong to men, and vice versa. Around a quarter of names couldn’t be classified in this way, so the pair excluded them from the rest of the analysis. They also didn’t include any other genders in their work.

The pair found that, in general, the percentage of women contributing to scientific papers increased each year. For example, only 43 per cent of authors in psychology were women in 2008, but this figure reached 50 per cent in 2021. Extrapolating forwards, they estimate that men and women will reach equal levels of authorship in biology in 2069 and chemistry in 2087.

However, many sciences won’t achieve parity until the next century, based on current rates of progress. The pair found that engineering will only reach gender parity in 2144, while mathematics and physics will have to wait until 2146 and 2158, respectively.

They also found that papers written by women for high-profile journals such as Nature and Cell were less cited than those written by men for the same publications. “It points to some kind of bias in the system,” says Larivière. He is unsure as to what may explain the discrepancy. “It’s not specific to one field,” he says. “It’s really there in every discipline.”

The pair’s research is part of a book called Equity for Women in Science, which is due to be published later this year and details the many ways that scientists, policy-makers, funders of research and science communicators can help to close this gap.

“There are no quick fixes,” says Sugimoto. “At a micro level, scientists need to change how they recruit students and how they promote.”

“Quotas work: they are ways for people to go beyond what is their gut reflexes of what’s in their close networks and actually find the people that contribute to the diversity of the scientific community,” she says.

On a wider level, funding agencies and institutions need to hold themselves accountable for increasing diversity in science, says Sugimoto.

Having equity in science between men and women is important for multiple reasons, says Sugimoto. “The diversity in the scientific workforce changes the content of research and it makes research more representative of the population,” she says. “This expands the breadth of possible questions.”

at Flinders University in Australia says this research makes clear that systems have to change, not women themselves.

“Gender equity in science and STEM holds so much promise for new ideas, perspectives and solutions,” she says. “Without the inclusion of half the world’s population, we are not working at optimal levels.”

Topics: Gender / Science