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Environment ministers from a coalition of countries including Canada, the UK, Costa Rica and France have urged negotiators at the COP15 summit to rally behind the so-called 30 by 30 target 鈥� a goal to protect 30 per cent of the world鈥檚 land and sea by 2030 in an effort to stem biodiversity losses around the globe.

The 30 by 30 goal is just one of more than 20 targets negotiators from around the world are thrashing out at the summit in Canada. But it has emerged as the goal with the most political momentum behind it, having been backed by 116 nations, loosely grouped together at COP15 under the 鈥楬igh Ambition Coalition鈥�.

鈥淲e cannot afford to leave Montreal without banking this commitment,鈥� said UK environment minister during a press conference on December 16. 鈥淲ithout it, we cannot realistically turn the tide this decade.鈥�

Where did the 30 by 30 goal come from?

The previous set of global biodiversity goals, set at COP10 in Aichi, Japan, in 2010, included a global goal to protect 17 per cent of the world鈥檚 land and 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas by 2020. This target was a relative success story 鈥� it was judged 鈥減artially achieved鈥� by the UN in 2020. None of the Aichi targets were fully achieved.

The Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, a new set of goals to achieve by 2030, seeks to up the ante. Achieving 30 by 30 would require countries to significantly boost the proportion of land and sea under environmental protection. As of mid-2021, 16.64 per cent of the world鈥檚 land and 7.74 per cent of its oceans were in protected areas.

Why has it become such an important target?

Of all the targets under discussion at COP15, 30 by 30 is one of the most straightforward for governments to deliver. It does not require complex work to measure species abundance, or risk political upset by withdrawing subsidies to electorally important sectors like agriculture. 鈥淚t is a high ambition thing, it鈥檚 something that every government can implement, it鈥檚 something that protects the most important places for nature, if it works properly,鈥� says at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds in the UK.

Canada鈥檚 environment minister said the 30 by 30 goal is the nature movement鈥檚 equivalent of 1.5掳C, the target for limiting global warming that underpins the push for net-zero emissions. 鈥淲e are calling on all countries to unite around the 30 by 30 initiative,鈥� Guilbeault said at a press conference on 16 December.

30 by 30 is a catchy slogan, but is it grounded in science?

Biologists, climate scientists and conservation groups say 30 by 30 is not enough. In their eyes, we should be aiming to protect even more. The biologist E.O. Wilson, who died in 2021, called for 50 per cent of the world to be set aside for nature, arguing that this would theoretically protect 80 per cent of the world鈥檚 species from extinction.

Meanwhile, a report released in February by the UN鈥檚 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 鈥� including land, freshwater and ocean 鈥� needs to be effectively conserved to tackle climate change and protect nature in a warming world.

at RESOLVE, a US conservation non-profit, says protecting 50 per cent of land and water should be the bare minimum. 鈥淭here is no credible scientific basis for 30 by 30 in the scientific literature,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a slogan made up by campaigners.鈥� He led a group of researchers calling for a 鈥溾��, which would see 30 per cent of Earth formally protected and an additional 20 per cent designated as 鈥渃limate stabilization areas鈥� by 2030. To arrive at the 50 per cent figure, the team drew on academic research on actions required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, in addition to what conservationists say is necessary to protect functioning ecosystems and native species.

Why is 30 by 30 a controversial goal?

Some non-governmental organisations and Indigenous groups worry it will give governments a licence to practise so-called 鈥渇ortress conservation鈥�, where Indigenous peoples are barricaded from their lands to create uninhabited natural parks and reserves.

鈥淲e鈥檝e had long-standing concerns about this target,鈥� says at Rainforest Foundation UK. 鈥淭he thought of essentially doubling the globally protected areas to 30 per cent, and doubling the amount of evictions, doubling the amount of human rights abuses, doubling the amount of issues around food security, is not something that we would support.鈥�

Eisen says the final target needs to be carefully worded, to make clear that Indigenous peoples are empowered and supported to be the managers of protected areas. After all, Indigenous peoples make up around 5 per cent of the world鈥檚 population , according to the World Bank.

Then there is the problem of whether areas designated as 鈥減rotected鈥� are actually managed in a way that improves biodiversity. In the UK, for example, the government claims it is protecting 28 per cent of land for nature. But that figure includes sites that are often used for intensive farming, tourism or hunting, for example. As little as 5 per cent of UK land may be effectively managed with nature conservation as the priority, according to a

Will COP15 delegates agree to the 30 by 30 target?

So far, 116 countries have publicly backed the goal, but that leaves around 80 nations who have refused to publicly endorse it. Some countries are holding out for the promise of more funding towards the goal, particularly those with the most precious biodiversity that will be essential to preserve. On 15 December, Brazil鈥檚 incoming president Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva called for 鈥渘ew and additional鈥� funding for biodiversity to unblock talks around greater ambition.

Speaking to reporters a day later, Goldsmith suggested that more money could be forthcoming if nations rallied behind 30 by 30. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 unlock ambition without finance, but we鈥檙e not going to have finance without ambition either,鈥� he said.