For decades, governments and businesses have had a keen eye on the mineral wealth buried in the deep ocean, but a vacuum in regulations governing seabed mining has kept would-be miners at bay.
That is all set to change in 2023, as governments face a July deadline to agree on regulations governing deep-sea mining 鈥� or risk mining companies starting work on the seabed without any rules at all.
Under the UN regulator, the International Seabed Authority (ISA), nations have had more than 20 years to draw up environmental rules for deep-sea mining, which would see minerals such as cobalt and manganese harvested from the seabed to make electric car batteries.
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But so far, nations have failed to agree on a common approach. Exasperated by the delay, in 2021, mining firm The Metals Company teamed up with the Pacific island nation of Nauru to invoke a clause under a UN treaty that triggers a 鈥渢wo-year rule鈥�.
Effectively, this means nations now have until July 2023 to finalise the mining code. If there is no agreement by then, entities can apply for licences to start commercial exploitation based on draft regulations 鈥� and may even be able to start mining without any code at all.
The deadline has sparked fury among scientists and environmental campaigners, who say nations are being rushed to make decisions without enough scientific evidence on the potential harm mining could do to deep-ocean habitats.
鈥淥rganisms have evolved extraordinary adaptations to thrive in the challenging conditions of the deep ocean and we鈥檙e still only just beginning to understand what鈥檚 there, how deep-sea species survive and the roles they play in the interconnected ocean,鈥� says marine biologist
Mining these areas will 鈥渢urn some of the most remote and untouched parts of the ocean into an industrial zone鈥�, she says.
But mining firms say the world desperately needs minerals to support the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The Metals Company is one of more than a dozen mining companies vying for a slice of the mineral wealth in the deep ocean. Most are focused on harvesting potato-sized nodules packed with valuable cobalt, manganese and nickel, which they say will supercharge the world鈥檚 progress to net-zero emissions.
鈥淚 think everyone agrees that we have a climate crisis on our hands,鈥� says Gerard Barron, CEO of The Metals Company. 鈥淚 certainly don鈥檛 agree that the world is being rushed.鈥�
Barron says he is 鈥渧ery confident鈥� that ISA member states will agree the mining code by July.
Others aren鈥檛 so sure. Many countries are becoming increasingly sceptical of the industry, wary of the potential environmental impacts and unable to agree on how proceeds from mining should be distributed, says at the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition.
鈥淭he slow, inexorable movement towards 鈥榣ets adopt the regulations and start mining鈥欌�� is now shifting, and it鈥檚 shifting considerably,鈥� says Gianni, pointing to France鈥檚 call in November for an outright ban on any mining.
He thinks it is 鈥渉ighly unlikely鈥� nations will agree on new rules by July, and this outcome is likely to trigger fresh battles.
It is unclear whether companies will want to risk the reputational damage of being seen to press ahead with mining even if no rules are in place 鈥� Barron wouldn鈥檛 be drawn on what The Metals Company would do under such a scenario.
Even then, an application would need to be approved by the 36 nations that act as members of the ISA Council. ISA regulations say the council must 鈥渃onsider鈥� and 鈥減rovisionally approve鈥� any application. However, some researchers, such as at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies in Potsdam, Germany, argue that approval from the council isn鈥檛 automatic or guaranteed. 鈥淲hile there is a deadline, it is not an absolute deadline,鈥� he says.
Yet the mining companies 鈥� backed by billions of dollars in investor capital 鈥� are pushing for a quick decision. Some are concerend that further delays to approval could impact their ability to attract new investment. The July deadline will bring these tensions to a head, even if countries are still arguing over the mining rulebook.
