In response to protests in many parts of the country, China is easing some of the draconian measures it imposed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. But the government鈥檚 failure to vaccinate the most vulnerable people means that the relaxation of restrictions risks causing a vast number of deaths.
A big wave of infections in the country could lead to , according to UK science analytics company Airfinity. It has modelled what could happen in China based on what happened in Hong Kong in March this year.
鈥淎 wave of infections could be devastating,鈥� says Matt Linley at Airfinity.
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Most countries around the world have ended nearly all their covid-19 measures without a big surge in deaths, although in the US and Europe there is around 1 death from covid-19 per million people each day. Deaths remain relatively low because of high levels of immunity from vaccination and infection 鈥� and also because many of the most vulnerable people have died already.
New Zealand saw death rates rise as its zero-covid policy came to an end. However, thanks to vaccination rates of , it had despite the lack of previous exposure to the virus. Since the start of the pandemic, a total of about , compared with around 3200 per million in the US and UK.
In Hong Kong, by contrast, there was a massive spike in deaths when its efforts to maintain zero covid failed in March this year. The main reason was that only around 30 per cent of those aged over 80 were vaccinated. Hospitals were also overwhelmed by the number of cases, meaning some people died because they didn鈥檛 get the usual standard of care.
There have now been . That is about half the number in the US and UK, and more than three times that in New Zealand.
According to Airfinity, death rates in mainland China could be even higher than in Hong Kong, for several reasons. 鈥淥nly 40 per cent of over 80s have had a booster, with the majority getting that nearly a year ago,鈥� says Linley. Models that take into account the waning of immunity over time suggest that protection levels have now fallen well below those in Hong Kong back in March, he says.
What鈥檚 more, mainland China has half as many critical care beds per person as Hong Kong, says Linley. 鈥淪o a wave of infections could have a dramatic impact on mortality once hospitals are at capacity.鈥�
As a result, a major wave in China could result in up to 1500 deaths per million people, Airfinity鈥檚 models suggest, or 2.1 million in total.
One apparently official estimate isn鈥檛 much lower. An article released by the Communist party committee in Zhejiang province reportedly warns that there could be if all restrictions are lifted, or around 400 per million people.
Health officials in China are well aware of what happened in Hong Kong. 鈥淭he outbreak in Hong Kong is a particularly profound lesson for us, an example that if the vaccination rate for the elderly is low, the rate of severe cases and deaths will be high,鈥� said Wang Hesheng at the National Health Commission in China back in March.
Despite this, China continued to focus on zero covid regardless of the economic and humanitarian cost, without preparing a plan B. It has belatedly , but this could take months. Now, the easing of restrictions 鈥� with the country currently reporting 鈥� could lead to the current outbreak becoming worse, forcing the authorities to choose between allowing a major wave with many deaths or re-imposing draconian measures.
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