Hundreds of Russia鈥檚 top software developers appear to have left the country during its military invasion of Ukraine. The exodus of tech talent started even before Russian president Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilisation in September, spurring an estimated 200,000 men to flee amid the prospect of being drafted to join the war effort, and it could spell trouble for Russia鈥檚 future.
Almost 23 per cent of Russian developers who made the most contributions to coding projects on the software development platform GitHub changed their location information or deleted their profiles between February 2021 and June 2022. That figure is nearly four times as high as that of developers from neighbouring countries who aren鈥檛 directly involved in the conflict.
鈥淭he most active are much more likely to leave,鈥� says at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, a non-profit research institution in Austria. 鈥淎nd the [developers] central in this collaboration network are also more likely to leave.鈥�
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Wachs gathered data on the geographic locations of active developers on GitHub at two moments in time, one a year before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the other several months into the war.
Compared with their peers from central and eastern Europe (excluding Ukraine and Belarus), Russian developers were about 3.5 times as likely to list a new country of residence outside Russia and almost six times as likely to have obscured their location.
This Russian 鈥渂rain drain鈥� may translate into an especially significant 鈥渂rain gain鈥� for neighbouring countries such as Georgia and Armenia, which ranked second and fourth as the top destinations for Russian developer emigres, says Wachs. That is because both countries are receiving a relatively large influx of Russian developers compared with their original tech talent pool.
By the same token, the loss of so many tech workers could be a significant blow to Russia鈥檚 long-term prospects.
鈥淭heir permanent departure from the Russian labour pool or from the Russian economy can have detrimental effects,鈥� says聽 at the Center for New American Security, a national security think tank in Washington DC. 鈥淭here aren鈥檛 that many IT workers in Russia to begin with.鈥�
Tech workers who remain in Russia face an uncertain future, as they might be drafted to replenish the Russian military鈥檚 ranks. Many Russian tech companies are currently lobbying the Kremlin to exempt their workers from military service, says Bendett.
鈥淚 think the crux of the problem is, can the Russian IT industry fight for its workers?鈥� says Bendett. 鈥淥r is this situation going to be so bad that the Russian military is just going to need more bodies?鈥�
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