Alongside plans to , license new North Sea oil and gas fields and speed up deployment of clean energy, new UK prime minister Liz Truss today also said she would lift England鈥檚 moratorium on fracking for shale gas.
The prohibition of fracking in 2019 followed almost a decade of exploration for shale gas in the UK. Fracking transformed the energy landscape in the US, but faltered in the UK in the face of public hostility and regulations halting operations if minor earthquakes were triggered. It involves pumping water underground at high pressure along with sand and chemicals to fracture shale rock and release gas.
Truss told the UK parliament: 鈥淲e will end the moratorium on extracting our huge reserves of shale, which could get gas flowing as soon as six months, where there is support for it.鈥�
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So will the move lead to a boom in fracking? UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG), the trade body for shale gas companies, says there are at least five companies that would like to extract the fossil fuel: Ineos Shale, iGas Energy, Egdon Resources, Cuadrilla Resources and Aurora Energy Resources.
Ross Glover at iGas Energy implied Truss鈥檚 incredibly short timeline is plausible if rules are changed enough. 鈥淪hort timescales can be achieved, but we would need a vastly streamlined regulatory framework,鈥� he said. Tom Crotty at Ineos Shale claimed fracking could transform the UK鈥檚 energy fortunes as it has done in the US.
However, despite industry bullishness, there is a long list of reasons a UK shale gas revolution may still never materialise. at Imperial College London called the end of the ban a 鈥減ointless distraction because no community will want to host fracking鈥�.
The government鈥檚 own polling bears that out. In 2014, . By last year, , with 45 per cent of the public opposing it and just 17 per cent in favour. High-profile protests were staged against fracking by Cuadrilla Resources at its Preston New Road site near Blackpool in north-west England in 2018 and 2019. Other prospective shale sites faced stiff resistance, often from protesters who took 鈥渄irect action鈥� such as blocking roads.
Then there are the regulations facing shale gas explorers. The current rules mean any fracking that causes a relatively low-level tremor 鈥� anything above magnitude 0.5 鈥� forces companies to temporarily halt operations. Cuadrilla . It is hard to see how future fracking could proceed without raising this limit.
In April, a review of scientific evidence of shale gas extraction. It has still not been published, but is expected imminently. Any evidence will presumably be drawn from other countries because there is no UK data beyond that from Cuadrilla in 2018 and 2019.
If the review, produced by the British Geological Survey, doesn鈥檛 provide a scientific basis, Truss鈥檚 move would break a 2019 manifesto pledge. 鈥渦nless the science shows categorically that it can be done safely鈥�.
There are other barriers to having gas flowing within six months. at Aberdeen University in the UK says while he recognises the 鈥渨ish to understand all options鈥� in a time of energy security concerns, the practicalities of extracting shale gas in the UK remain very challenging. He has studied the sub-surface environment around the Preston New Road site and found the geology was very complex, with a lot of faults that compartmentalise areas below ground, making it hard to extract gas without triggering seismic activity.
鈥淚t鈥檚 one thing to lift a ban on fracking, and quite another to get industry to invest at scale, particularly in a resource which is likely to be slow, contentious and limited,鈥� says , a geologist at the University of Edinburgh, UK.
All past shale gas sites in the UK have been mothballed and Cuadrilla鈥檚 fracking permission at Preston New Road has expired. Haszeldine notes that Truss鈥檚 timeline could also be stymied by local planning consent being required in some cases. Companies would also need to mobilise drilling crews with fracking expertise, along with drilling rigs and other equipment.
The government is , tests to see if new oil and gas projects align with climate change goals. While aimed at North Sea production, the government has said it is minded to apply the test to onshore production too 鈥� which would cover fracking. 鈥淧roducing more methane gas by fracking sends the UK鈥檚 climate ambition backwards,鈥� says Haszeldine.
Finally, it is debatable whether the UK has 鈥渉uge reserves鈥� to extract. Geologists in estimated the reserves were 10 times lower than those suggested by shale gas advocates. Underhill says while there may be a large potential resource, the reserves 鈥� the amount economically recoverable 鈥� will be much smaller. 鈥淚 am really sceptical that this [fracking] is the pathway to the indigenous gas reserves this country seeks,鈥� he says.
Whether shale gas can help UK energy security is an open question. But one thing is certain: UK fracking won鈥檛 address the painfully high energy prices the country is currently facing, because gas prices are set internationally. On that point, even Truss鈥檚 new chancellor, .
