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We can curb surging covid-19 cases – but we can’t do it without data

We have the tools to tackle the global wave of BA.4 and BA.5 infections, but testing cutbacks make it hard to get an accurate picture of the current state of the pandemic

Mandatory Credit: Photo by CAROLINE BREHMAN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock (13023803f) Healthcare worker Jesus Eduardo Lara, collects information before taking a nasal swab sample to test for Covid-19, at a Total Testing Solutions Covid Testing Center in Los Angeles, California, USA, 08 July 2022. Covid-19 positive patients in Los Angeles County hospitals has risen to over 1000 people since 02 July, as highly contagious variants of the virus take hold. Los Angeles County Covid-19 hospitalizations surge, USA - 08 Jul 2022

YOU may have heard that the coronavirus pandemic is over. This narrative is common and covid-19’s ranking among international news agendas has fallen dramatically since the start of the year, displaced by a host of other stories, including war, Roe v Wade, food and energy crises, extreme heatwaves and a political soap opera in the UK government.

And yet there are now more confirmed cases of covid-19 globally than there were at any point during the first two years of the pandemic, as the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants spread worldwide and contribute to the UK’s fifth wave of surging covid-19 infections.

Due to cutbacks in mass testing, it is perhaps more difficult than ever to get a clear picture of the pandemic’s current status. Fortunately, the randomised testing survey conducted by the UK’s official statistics agency continues to give a picture of the country’s infections – albeit with a roughly nine-day time lag in which infection numbers could peak, stabilise or rise dramatically without us knowing.

The wide roll-out of vaccines in some countries has avoided many deaths – , according to one study. But the vaccines’ protection against the coronavirus has never been 100 per cent, and as ever-more-transmissible variants continue to emerge, increasing infection numbers will always mean more deaths. Covid-19 was in the week ending 24 June, the most recent official data available. Many questions about the virus also remain, ranging from the long-term effects it has on our organs to the impact of catching it multiple times.

No one wants to return to mass lockdowns. But two-and-a-half years of research has provided us with tools for curbing infections, from rapid testing and isolation to behaviour change and masking, as well as the knowledge that ventilation is crucial. To best deploy these valuable tools, we need a full, data-informed understanding of the current state of play.

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