The UK expects to become a net exporter of electricity in just eight years鈥� time as the country implements its Net Zero Strategy.
The milestone would reverse decades of the country being a net power importer, using subsea cables to draw more electricity from French nuclear reactors and other European power stations than it sends in the other direction. Electricity imports into the UK .
To meet its goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, the country plans to encourage a wave of offshore wind farms and solar installations this decade. These are expected to produce such an abundance of inexpensive power that by 2030, Great Britain will be a net exporter, according to scenarios being considered by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), which underpin the UK鈥檚 flagship Net Zero Strategy.
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, a glut of gas in the UK has seen power stations burning more of it than usual, resulting in electricity flowing to continental Europe, but this is an unusual and temporary situation; whereas the change from 2030 is expected to be permanent.
Officials at BEIS anticipate that by 2050, Great Britain will be exporting the equivalent of about a fifth of total electricity generation today via the subsea cables, known as interconnectors.
鈥淚n the future, we鈥檒l likely be exporting because we have spare power,鈥澨� says Jess Ralston at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank. 鈥淪o net exports are likely to occur when it鈥檚 very windy and/or demand is low. It鈥檚 a consequence of having a large wind fleet that can meet the bulk of UK demand even when it鈥檚 not that windy and turbines aren鈥檛 operating at 100 per cent. So prices would be low, there鈥檇 be no risk to security and it鈥檇 lower emissions.鈥�
Simon Evans at the website Carbon Brief says the projections are notable because BEIS has previously tended to skew towards assuming imported energy will help to meet the UK鈥檚 carbon goals. However, he says there is considerable uncertainty in the scenarios because there are so many variables, from how many interconnectors get built to levels of carbon pricing in the UK and the European Union.听
Nonetheless, a growing number of analyses suggest the direction of travel is clear: that a boom in wind and solar power generation in the UK will lead the country to become a net exporter. One by the consultancy LCP found that growth in renewables would mean the UK would have an excess of electricity about 53 per cent of the time in 2030. Another , by S&P Global Platts, said the UK would be a net power exporter by 2026.
at University College London says while there is a lot of uncertainty, all of BEIS鈥檚 scenarios have similar levels of investment in interconnectors. He says there are reasons to think the investment might be forthcoming. 鈥淭he capacity of interconnectors has doubled in the last few years, and that鈥檚 despite uncertainties due to Brexit,鈥� he says. There are seven interconnectors between Great Britain and continental Europe today. Another is being built to Denmark and more are proposed to France, Germany and as far afield as Morocco.
The links are seen by experts as helpful for energy security, which has come to the fore since Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, with the UK publishing a new energy security strategy last month. The UK was once a net exporter of energy but as North Sea oil and gas production began to wind down.
The BEIS scenarios, , provide a peek behind the curtain at the assumptions for the Net Zero Strategy. The UK government has repeatedly refused freedom of information requests asking for the document with a full breakdown of those assumptions.
The scenarios don't include Northern Ireland, whose electricity sector is integrated with the Republic of Ireland, but their projections would still make the UK a net exporter because energy production and consumption in Northern Ireland are such a small fraction of the UK total.
