Western Australia, which has mostly dodged the coronavirus by sealing itself off from the rest of the world, has scrapped its plan to reopen next month based on concerns about the omicron variant. But researchers say there may be little point in waiting longer before letting the virus in.
The state, which has a population of 2.7 million, has recorded just 1300 covid-19 cases and nine deaths to date. It has achieved this by heavily restricting travel from the rest of Australia and other countries.
In December, the state鈥檚 premier, , announced that Western Australia would restore travel freedoms on 5 February, when 90 per cent of its population aged 12 and over was expected to be double-vaccinated. But on 20 January, McGowan cancelled the reopening, citing fears of an omicron surge. 鈥淥micron is a whole new ball game,鈥� he said at a press conference.
Advertisement
McGowan didn鈥檛 set a new reopening date, but said the aim was to get 80 to 90 per cent of people boosted with a third dose of vaccine. The state currently has a third dose vaccination rate of 25 per cent for people aged 16 and older.
at the University of Western Australia in Perth, says it is unclear if this would put the state in a better position, since by the time everyone has received their booster shots, people who received them early on will already have waning immunity.
鈥淭here鈥檚 never going to be a situation where everyone is synched to the same level of immunity so you can say, 鈥極K, now we can let the virus in鈥�,鈥� she says.
The two main benefits of waiting longer are having time to vaccinate 5- to 12-year-olds, who have only recently become eligible for the vaccine, and being able to import more rapid antigen tests, which are currently in short supply, says Imrie.
But in the meantime, people in Western Australia are getting fed up with being cut off from their friends and family in other parts of Australia and overseas, she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very difficult.鈥�
Some businesses are also suffering, with the Western Australian tourism council chief after the latest announcement that 鈥渨e have no date, no plan and no future for the tourism industry鈥�.
at the University of Melbourne says he doesn鈥檛 think Western Australia has much to gain by shutting itself off for longer.
鈥淔or places like Western Australia, China, New Zealand and Taiwan that are still playing the elimination game, there is a glimmer of hope that they can perhaps keep omicron out until new vaccines come along that are better at stopping omicron, but I think the chance of that is remote,鈥� he says.
There is little use waiting for the omicron surge in the rest of the world to die down as the only reason it will do so is because so many people will have been infected, says Blakely. The variant could take off just as explosively in Western Australia because of the low levels of natural immunity in the population, he says.
Western Australia already has a small omicron outbreak that began in early January and has grown to 82 active cases, prompting the reintroduction of compulsory mask-wearing. 鈥淚f they lose control of this omicron outbreak, they may as well open the borders because once you have lots of cases a day, people coming over the border will make no difference,鈥� says Blakely.
Sign up to our free Health Check newsletter for a round-up of all the health and fitness news you need to know, every Saturday
