It is a long-held belief that football teams playing in their home stadium get a boost from their fans. However, quantifying this effect on match results was difficult until the pandemic created an unprecedented natural experiment when most of the 2020/21 season was played behind closed doors.
Statistics shared with 快猫短视频 by London-based sports intelligence firm Twenty First Group show that home teams in Europe鈥檚 five major men鈥檚 football leagues lost a significant home advantage when their games were played in empty stadiums.
But now fans are in the stands once more, that advantage is coming back. Home teams are winning more games in front of fans than when football was played behind closed doors and are mounting even more comebacks 鈥� a draw or win at the end of the game after losing at half-time 鈥� than before.
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Statistics from nearly 4000 matches played across the Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga, French Ligue 1 and English Premier League show that the win rate for home teams dropped to 40 per cent from 44 per cent when fans were excluded from stadiums and is at 42 per cent now that they have returned.
The Premier League, which has permitted full stadium capacity this season, has seen a greater recovery. After dropping to 39 per cent from 46 per cent, home teams are now winning 45 per cent of matches.
Some leagues saw no rebound in home advantage, possibly reflecting their ongoing restrictions on crowd capacity. Stadiums are only 41 per cent full on average across the five leagues compared with 77 per cent before the pandemic.
The findings support a by Dane McCarrick at the University of Leeds, UK, and his colleagues, who examined nearly 5000 matches in 11 countries and found that home teams won 0.39 more points per game at home with crowds, but only 0.22 more without spectators. Home teams with fans have more possession and create more chances, forcing the opposition to sit back and commit fouls, says McCarrick.
Away teams might use this new insight to change their tactics, he says. 鈥淜nowing that the home side鈥檚 likelihood of winning is reduced without the support of their crowd is an important tactic for away teams to remember, which may result in teams attacking early in the game to put their opponents on the back foot in the knowledge that their crowd cannot spur them on to bounceback,鈥� he says.
