The chief aim of the COP26 climate summit is to 鈥渒eep 1.5掳C alive鈥�, according to the president of the talks, Alok Sharma. But meeting that Paris Agreement goal, of holding global temperature rises to 1.5掳C, will require bold ambition from countries in their emissions plans for the end of the decade.
Governments had to submit plans in 2015 and were given a deadline of submitting new ones showing 鈥減rogression鈥� by the end of 2020. However, many missed that schedule and the COP26 meeting starting in Glasgow, UK, on 31 October is now a de facto deadline for stronger plans.
So which countries are leading with their new plans for 2030, and which are lagging? Which are contributing a fair amount to ensuring the world warms by no more than 1.5掳C, and which aren鈥檛? These 10 charts, drawing on data provided by non-profit organisation , tell the story.
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Rapid industrialisation around the turn of the century and a huge expansion of coal power have propelled China to account for more than a quarter of global emissions. The country is yet to update the , which allowed for emissions to keep growing and only peak 鈥渁round鈥� 2030. The country has the biggest renewable electricity capacity globally, yet its size, growth and continued reliance on coal for more than pose a serious challenge to cutting emissions.
A new plan from China is expected to reflect President Xi Jinping鈥檚 previous promise to peak emissions before 2030, but don鈥檛 expect that to be enough to put the country on a pathway towards its fair share. There is still hope for China to do better, though. The International Energy Agency in which emissions peak in 2025 and decline 4 per cent per year from then, but only by retiring old coal plants and implementing an accelerated roll-out of renewable power and electric vehicles.
The US was a key player in forging the Paris Agreement. Yet under former president Donald Trump, it withdrew from the accord, leaving it with no formal plan to cut emissions. Within months of taking office, Joe Biden had rejoined the treaty and set a goal of a 50 to 52 per cent emissions cut by 2030, on 2005 levels. That was at the upper end of expectations.
The US has largely cut emissions in recent years by switching from coal to gas power and, to a lesser degree, renewables. Solar power will be a big plank of the new plan: showed it could go from about 4 per cent of electricity supplies now to 40 per cent by 2035. The country also wants to roll out more electric cars and increase the energy efficiency of homes. The big question over Biden鈥檚 new climate goal is whether he can navigate domestic politics to secure the spending to deliver it.
As home to the world鈥檚 biggest rainforest, a vital store of carbon, Brazil is a key player in international climate talks. President Jair Bolsonaro has pledged to make the country carbon neutral by 2050, contingent on climate finance from richer countries.
But there is a big mismatch between that long-term aspiration and Brazil鈥檚 short-term plan this decade. Last December, the country , but left its target from five years earlier entirely unchanged. That flies in the face of the Paris Agreement, where countries promised that each of their successive pledges would be a 鈥減rogression鈥� on past ones. Worse, a methodology tweak saw an increase in emissions for 2005, the base year for measuring the cuts from. That means emissions can go up and the target still be met.
The European Union, the world鈥檚 third-largest emitter, is usually a progressive force at UN climate talks. However, reaching internal agreement on ambitious climate plans can sometimes be difficult, as countries including Germany and Poland are still both heavily reliant on coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels.
The bloc updated its plan in December 2020, pledging a 55 per cent cut in emissions by 2030 on 1990 levels 鈥� a significant upgrade on its old plan of a 40 per cent reduction. A carbon border tax, steps to encourage renewables and energy efficiency, and making airlines use greener fuels are some of the ways the EU plans to hit the new goal.听Yet Climate Action Tracker says the EU should be going much further to help the world stay under 1.5掳C.
As host of the COP26 climate summit, the spotlight has been on the UK to show leadership. The country鈥檚 answer was a pledge last December to cut emissions 68 per cent on 1990 levels by 2030, the toughest target of any major economy. While world-leading, there is still a big question mark over whether the UK government will put the policies in place to meet the goal.
The UK is already off track for earlier targets it has set domestically. Chris Stark at the Climate Change Committee, which advises the UK government, has said he is 鈥渧ery concerned鈥� about a lack of policies to meet carbon targets. The government has promised a 鈥渘et-zero strategy鈥� imminently.
It is also worth noting that the UK is one of a few countries, like Germany, whose fair share towards a 1.5掳C goal would require the country to be pulling more CO2 out of the atmosphere than it puts in, known as negative emissions. That is mainly because of the UK鈥檚 large historical emissions, and partly its capability to cut emissions.
Despite having some of the greatest renewable energy potential thanks to its climate and large amounts of available land, not to mention facing some of the worst impacts of climate change such as the devastating bushfires of 2019 and 2020, Australia has one of the weakest emissions reductions plans among high-income countries. Coal is a critical part of its energy supplies, and the economy is heavily reliant on its extraction and mining.
The government鈥檚 revised climate plan is largely the same as the original one it submitted five years earlier. The only notable additions were the target being described as a 鈥渇loor鈥� on ambition, and a stated aim to 鈥渙verachieve鈥� on the target. Producing low-carbon hydrogen for export is a key pillar of the plan.
More than two-thirds of Vietnam鈥檚 electricity supplies come from coal and gas, with most of the rest made up from hydro provided by large dams along the Mekong river basin. The country for an expansion of wind and solar power. But the update of its climate plan in 2020 was a modest upgrade on previous plans and still envisages emissions growing out to 2030. Climate Action Tracker deems the target 鈥渃ritically insufficient鈥�.
The world鈥檚 fourth-largest economy, behind China, the US and the EU, has struggled to wean itself off fossil fuels in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. Last year, the country promised it would reach net-zero emissions by 2050, but its short-term ambitions still fall short. A revised emissions plan last year was unchanged from the country鈥檚 original one for the Paris Agreement.
However, in April, Japan announced plans to significantly bolster its ambitions, cutting emissions 46 per cent by 2030 on 2013 levels, up on its old goal of a 26 per cent reduction. Today, to the UN.
The planet鈥檚 largest democracy is also one of the biggest emitters, but on a per capita basis, it is well below the global average 鈥� something Indian prime minister Narendra Modi was keen to point out at a climate summit in April. That is partly why its 鈥渇air share鈥� towards 1.5掳C, as shown by the green line, would allow emissions to rise in the short term.
As the country said in its first climate plan, in 2015: 鈥淚t is estimated that more than half of India of 2030 is yet to be built.鈥� That plan included a pledge to reduce its 鈥渆missions intensity鈥� 鈥� how much CO2 is emitted per unit of GDP 鈥� but no absolute reduction in emissions. India has a plan to have 450 gigawatts of solar power capacity by 2030, and is on 100 GW already.
鈥淗e really gets this,鈥� says COP26 president Alok Sharma of Modi. 鈥淗e understands the real importance of tackling climate change, tackling biodiversity loss.鈥� India is still yet to produce a new, more ambitious emissions plan.
Despite being a low-income country, the Gambia鈥檚 plan to curb emissions was as the only one听of 37 countries鈥� plans to be aligned with the Paris Agreement鈥檚 1.5掳C goal. The aim is to cut emissions in half by 2030 against 鈥渂usiness-as-usual鈥� levels, conditional on support from richer countries, meaning emissions will gradually fall by the end of the decade rather than rising.
The graph shows only unconditional emissions reductions pledges. Some of the biggest emissions savings are expected to come from changes to growing rice, how livestock are managed and how waste is treated.
A brief note on the data
The dotted blue lines indicate the path implied by the average emissions in 2030 under countries鈥� nationally-determined contributions (NDCs) submitted to UN Climate Change (many countries provide a range). The emissions cuts here are only those that are unconditional in the NDCs. Some poorer countries promise deeper cuts conditional on richer countries providing climate finance, which isn鈥檛 guaranteed.
The dotted green lines show a for each country if the world is to achieve the 1.5掳C goal, as calculated by non-profit organisation , which has provided all the data. The solid black lines show historical emissions. All the figures exclude emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry. For most Western countries, such as the UK, these are marginal. However, for some countries with far greater forest cover, such as Brazil, they can be a significant driver of emissions growth or reductions.
