Some 1.8 billion fewer people will experience one or more tropical storms in their lifetimes if we limit global warming this century to 1.5掳C instead of letting temperatures rise to 3.1掳C above pre-industrial levels.
Right now, about 150 million people experience the effects of one or more cyclones each year 鈥� with those living in countries including Bangladesh and Myanmar particularly likely to do so.
鈥淭ropical cyclones are one of the most damaging impacts of climate change and knowing specifically that risk may foster stronger policy responses,鈥� says at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
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Geiger and his colleagues devised a model to look at how people鈥檚 lives may be affected by an increase in frequency of cyclones.
鈥淲e developed a model which looked at global risk and made it more orientated around [cyclone] landfall and how real people will be affected,鈥� says Geiger.
The researchers looked at cyclone risk if we keep to specific commitments made in line with the Paris Agreement 鈥� which right now Geiger says are likely to limit temperature rise by 2100 to 3.1掳C. They then compared this figure with the number of cyclones predicted if we successfully limit the rise to either 2掳C or 1.5掳C 鈥� the formal target set out in Paris.
From 2015 to 2100, limiting climate change to 1.5掳C, as opposed to letting the climate warm to 3.1掳C, will save an additional 1.8 billion people from experiencing at least one cyclone in their lifetime. Geiger says it is too difficult to predict how many people would actually lose their lives in the storms.
Warmer temperatures increase the frequency of cyclones as warmer oceans make it easier for the extreme weather events to occur. This can also lead to longer and more intense cyclones, says Geiger.
Countries already frequently affected by cyclones, such as the Philippines and Japan, will not only face more cyclones but each may last longer too, and so cause more damage. Nations ill-prepared for tropical storms 鈥� including Russia and Canada 鈥� will also be hit in future. Such storms will happen even if we limit temperature rise to 1.5掳C.
鈥淭iming plays a crucial role,鈥� says Geiger. The world鈥檚 population is expected to peak in 2050 and then start falling. Delaying the rate of climate change will mean fewer people are affected by extreme weather, he says.
鈥淭his is true for all sorts [of natural disasters] 鈥� from river floods to extreme heat events 鈥� it could save a large number of lives,鈥� he says.
at the University of California, Irvine, says few studies have directly assessed how a rise in cyclones will affect people鈥檚 lives globally. 鈥淸This study] makes tangible the dangers of not reducing carbon emissions,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 hope it gets some attention and spurs action at the upcoming COP26 climate negotiation.鈥�
Nature Climate Change
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