Countries have failed to come forward with enough bold new plans to cut carbon dioxide emissions under the Paris Agreement, according to a new analysis, meaning emissions in nine years鈥� time are expected to be roughly double the level needed to meet the treaty鈥檚 goal of holding global temperature rises to 1.5掳C.
Despite extreme weather in the northern hemisphere, a landmark climate science report and exhortations by UN leaders in recent months, greater ambition on emissions hasn鈥檛 materialised in the run-up to the critical COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, UK.
The nearly 200 countries that signed up to the Paris Agreement in 2015 agreed to raise the ambition of their emissions reduction plans every five years, starting at the end of 2020. In the past year, the UK, European Union and, in particular, the US聽put forward significant new plans to slash emissions by 2030. But not enough countries have followed suit to shift the dial globally, the analysis finds.
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鈥淲ith current pledges we predict that emissions in 2030 would be kind of stable from today 鈥� but they would have to be cut in half by 2030 to be in line with the 1.5掳C goal of the Paris Agreement,鈥� says at the non-profit , which partnered with to carry out the analysis. 鈥淪o we are roughly emitting twice as much in 2030 under all the proposals as we should.鈥�
The gap between the emissions cuts needed for 1.5掳C and countries鈥� pledges has closed by up to 15 per cent, or up to 4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, since last December. 鈥淚t has narrowed, a bit. But not much,鈥� says H枚hne. A further 20 to 23 billion tonnes of CO2e cuts will be needed to close the gap entirely.
Almost 90 countries plus the European Union鈥檚 27 member states, covering about half of global emissions, have put forward new plans. The UK鈥檚 plan of a 68 per cent cut by 2030, announced last December, makes it the only high-income country considered by CAT to have a domestic target compatible with the Paris goal of 1.5掳C. But factoring in a shortfall of policies to meet the target, and the UK not paying enough climate finance to lower-income countries, the country鈥檚 contribution is overall ranked 鈥渁lmost sufficient鈥� in the new report.
Notably, H枚hne and colleagues found a group of major emitters had submitted new plans that were the same, or even worse, than their original one. Australia and Indonesia鈥檚 were the same. Brazil and Mexico put forward the same numbers but changed the baseline year for measuring cuts, effectively watering them down. 鈥淭hat is for me against the spirit of the Paris Agreement,鈥� says H枚hne about this group.
There also remains a third group of 70 countries, which account for about half of global emissions, that have still not officially put forward any new plan. Those include G20 members, India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Adding the global commitments together, H枚hne says they will not 鈥渒eep 1.5掳C alive鈥�, as the UK government hopes COP26 will achieve. A more hopeful picture emerges from the number of countries, accounting for about three-quarters of global emissions, that have said they will hit net zero by mid-century. 鈥淏ut these are long-term promises. They are much easier than the short term targets for 2030. There you have the problem 鈥� all the [2030] targets the countries put forward are not consistent with their own long-term net-zero targets,鈥� says H枚hne.