One year on, the people of Svalbard are still talking about July 2020. The biggest town of this Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic, Longyearbyen, is surrounded by snowy hills and is sub-zero for much of the year. But last July, temperatures in a month that rarely sees a day above 10°C. This July, by contrast, has been slightly cooler than normal.
“There is a general feeling that things are not like they used to be,” says Kim Holmén at the Norwegian Polar Institute’s Longyearbyen office, which sits on the edge of the town, near the sea. Climate change has made Svalbard one of the fastest-warming parts of the Arctic. Summers may be hitting unseasonable heights, but winters are warming quicker, due to changes in sea ice levels. Winter temperatures in the islands are now about 10°C warmer than three decades ago, says Holmén.
Svalbard’s shifts are the most extreme example of a wider climatic change at the top of the world. In May, scientists said the Arctic is , up on previous estimates of just over two times as fast. For parts of Earth that have warmed closer to the global average, like London and New York, Svalbard offers a window to their possible future.
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On 9 August, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release on changes in Earth’s system so far, what is driving them and what the future holds. The report is expected to show that the range of possible temperature rises as a result of doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels, known as equilibrium climate sensitivity, has narrowed from the previous estimate of . The bottom end now looks to be at least 2.3°C. In other words, we are probably on for more warming globally than our previous best-case scenarios. And with greater warming comes more disruptive impacts, the subject of a second IPCC report due next year.
In Svalbard, those impacts have been legion. The highest-profile illustration was when the “doomsday vault” for the world’s seeds, on the island of Spitsbergen, had a tunnel due to heavy rainfall and melting permafrost. That forced a €20 million upgrade to the vault, a project that was itself hampered by topsoil not refreezing as expected. “Climate change is coming more rapidly than we thought,” says Erna Solberg, Norway’s prime minister.
Rainfall in winter, which occurred about once every five years three decades ago, now happens several times each winter. When rain falls on snow and frozen ground, or permafrost, it turns to ice, providing a slippery base for further snow. That is one reason why fears over avalanches are rising. A . Three steel avalanche barriers have already been erected this year on the hills around the former coal-mining town, with plans for a further 10 this summer. Helicopters are flying most days to hoist equipment and materials up the hills. “The whole landscape is dominated by them,” says Holmén of the new structures.
Temperature rises in permafrost have been detected up to 40 metres underground by the University Centre in Svalbard. That changes the way soil moves, hitting key infrastructure such as the runway a few kilometres outside Longyearbyen, a lifeline for the community to Oslo, about 3 hours south by plane, and leading to costly maintenance. “It has to have a pick-me-up every year,” says Holmén. To help the town’s population adapt to this new normal below their feet, building regulations have also been updated for new homes.
It isn’t just people being affected by the warming in Svalbard. The islands are also home to wildlife from polar bears to Arctic foxes and reindeer. While polar bears overall are suffering declines due to climate change, as melting sea ice extends their annual fasts beyond their limits, the bears in Svalbard are faring well after hunting by humans ended there in 1973. “We see a lot of happy polar bears,” says Holmén. The animals are an important part of the islands’ appeal for tourists, many of whom pose by bear warning signs on the outskirts of Longyearbyen.
Climate change has been a double-edged sword for Svalbard’s reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus), which are split into two populations, one inland near Longyearbyen and one on the coast. There are two changes acting in opposition, says Åshild Pedersen, also at the Norwegian Polar Institute. On the one hand, warmer summers are boosting vegetation growth, creating more food. On the other, winter rain leads to grass-trapping ice, resulting in starvation. That has led to a doubling of the inland community in the past three decades and a decline in the coastal one. “They are key species in the ecosystem,” says Pedersen, as the reindeer fertilise plants and their carcasses support Arctic foxes.
From wildlife to humans, those living in Svalbard have seen some of the most dramatic changes on the planet from climate change. And it will continue to remain a hotspot of warming for at least another decade or so, due to changes in sea ice in the region, says Holmén. But he says it is crucial to look at the global picture and not just focus on hotspots.
“Svalbard is yet another consistent manifestation of the entire problem of climate change. But [we] mustn’t make it into a competition, such as who has the biggest change, California, British Columbia or the Mediterranean? That’s not helpful,” he says. Instead, Holmén believes we should remember that failure to stop climate change has global consequences that are already playing out, from drought in the Sahel to record temperatures in Siberia. “The collected picture is overwhelmingly brutal and cannot be denied,” he says.
What to expect from the IPCC report
The IPCC, formed in 1988, is a group of government officials who commission the world’s top climate scientists to report on the state of the science of climate change every six to seven years. These assessment reports (AR) consist of three reports by working groups – one on the physical basis of climate change, one on its impacts and one on how the world tackles it – followed by a fourth “synthesis” bringing the three together.
This week, scientists are finalising a report by Working Group 1 for AR6, which will be published on 9 August. Things to watch for include: projected temperature rises for varying emissions scenarios (in other words, our best and worst futures); assessments of events with low probability but high impact, such as the collapse of Greenland’s ice sheet; and more focus on the risk of extreme weather as seen recently in North America, Europe and .
The report should feature more detail on air pollution such as particulates, which have a cooling effect, and the role of relatively short-lived greenhouse gases such as methane.
For those people yet to be persuaded, the report will also highlight the latest confidence scientists have that humans are to blame for warming to date. The last big IPCC report, AR5 in 2013-14, said it was extremely likely, or 95 per cent certain, that humans were the main cause.
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