Global CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for energy have already begun climbing above pre-pandemic levels, new data shows.
Lockdowns saw global emissions in 2020 . But the reprieve is looking increasingly short-lived, with a monthly breakdown by the International Energy Agency today showing worldwide emissions in December 2020 were up 2 per cent on December 2019.
China was the only major economy in which emissions grew for 2020 as a whole, up 0.8 per cent on 2019 levels, or 75 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. More big polluters saw their economies 鈥� and their emissions 鈥� recover after the nadir of April. For example, Brazil鈥檚 emissions were above 2019 levels from October to December 2020.
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鈥淭he rebound in global carbon emissions toward the end of last year is a stark warning that not enough is being done to accelerate clean energy transitions worldwide,鈥� said Fatih Birol at the IEA, in a statement.
The IEA鈥檚 view chimes with other analyses. On Monday, the Global Carbon Project鈥檚 estimate of a 5.6 per cent fall in 2020 was Robbie Andrew at the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Norway, made the revision after China released new data on Sunday.
Andrew says the trend of rebounding emissions is driven by two factors. One is that most countries, including the US, India and many places in Europe, are seeing emissions nowhere near as low as they were in April, due to less severe coronavirus restrictions. The other is that China dealt with the pandemic quickly, went back to 鈥渂usiness as usual鈥� and invested a lot of money into high emissions infrastructure due to the country鈥檚 slump in January and February.
Of the global trend, he says: 鈥淲e are certainly seeing a rebound. The question is whether that rebound will be sustained at previous levels.鈥� Andrew thinks that is unlikely because apart from China, most countries will not rebound so strongly. That could be because they may increase spending on infrastructure with lower emissions as their economies rebound.
Other sources tell a similar story. , a project tracking daily global CO2 emissions run by researchers in China, Europe and the US, found more days in December 2020 were above 2019 emission levels than below.
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