Sleuthing with satellite images on Google Earth has revealed a substantial and undocumented expansion to a suspected nuclear processing plant in Pakistan. Researchers say it is a possible sign of the country boosting the capacity of its nuclear weapons programme.
Pakistan has possessed nuclear weapons since 1998, but isn鈥檛 a signatory to key international treaties on nuclear proliferation and tests. The country鈥檚 secretive nuclear weapons programme is closely watched due to tensions with neighbouring India, which also has a nuclear arsenal.
Researchers at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a US-based non-profit organisation, have previously used satellite images a suspected nuclear facility at Chashma in the country鈥檚 north, which appeared to start operations in 2015. It is thought to reprocess fuel from nearby nuclear power plants, separating plutonium for use in weapons.
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Now, Neil Hyatt at the University of Sheffield, UK, has identified what appears to be a major expansion to the reprocessing plant. Using publicly available satellite images, and working with a team at ISIS to help analyse his discovery, he found that construction of the extension started between April and September 2018. Images in the two years afterwards show foundations and other works under way.
By 9 May 2020, a Google Earth image revealed a new 30 by 30 metre building, right next to the original building. Images taken on 13 September 2020 show the extension鈥檚 roof is apparently complete and construction fencing has been removed.
鈥淚 think this is pretty interesting from the perspective that we can use this open source imagery to follow the development of these suspected nuclear programmes 鈥� the information is literally out there waiting to be discovered,鈥� says Hyatt.
Without confirmation from the government of Pakistan it is hard to know what the facility will be used for or whether it is operational, but the scale of the development suggests the country plans a sustained effort of separating plutonium for weapons, says Hyatt.
鈥淧akistan does not have any immediate need to reuse plutonium in MOX fuel [for use in a nuclear power plant] and, because the facility is safeguarded, it seems likely the intention is to use the material in the weapons programme,鈥� he says.
Sarah Burkhard at ISIS says the discovery of the facility shows the need to continuously monitor Pakistan鈥檚 secret nuclear facilities. 鈥淧akistan may be planning to introduce more fuel for reprocessing or improve the operation of the reprocessing plant, in either case possibly building up further its stock of plutonium for use in nuclear weapons,鈥� she says.
Researchers regularly model the apocalyptic global consequences of a nuclear war between Pakistan and India. Jeffrey Lewis at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California says while some people assume India has a bigger nuclear weapons stockpile because it is the bigger country, Pakistan鈥檚 is believed to be the larger of the two.
鈥淧akistan continues to place enormous emphasis on growing its nuclear weapons programme, and the expansion of the reprocessing facility underscores that,鈥� he says.
Pakistan鈥檚 embassy in London wasn鈥檛 able to provide a comment before publication.
