Coronavirus cases are rising again across the UK. Without urgent action, they , health officials have warned. Many scientists are now calling for further measures, such as a short-term national lockdown to limit the virus鈥檚 spread. But others point out that restrictions cause their own harms, including impacts on other health services, economic hardship and a significant toll on mental health.
Thousands of people attended a聽London protest last weekend against lockdown and related measures. Similar protests have taken place around the UK and the聽world. Meanwhile, a group of聽scientists have signed an essentially arguing that the virus should be left to聽let聽rip through young and healthy聽populations.
The open letter, by Sunetra Gupta at the University of Oxford and 31聽of her colleagues, argues that lockdown and other restrictions have had a devastating impact on the wider delivery of healthcare. Cancer Research UK estimates that between April and August, for example.
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However, others argue that the聽overwhelming of health services that occurred in the UK in聽April wasn鈥檛 solely because of the coronavirus epidemic, but was also due to years of underfunding of the National Health Service, which is often stretched beyond capacity during winter.
The authors of the letter rightly point out that the pandemic has significantly worsened mental health, although anxiety and depression appeared to be rising before lockdowns came into effect. But their further points have come under fire from other scientists.
Gupta and her co-authors argue聽that young people should be聽given age鈥憇pecific advice on聽their individual level of risk because they are much less likely聽to die from covid鈥�19. Older and聽vulnerable people should be shielded, while young and healthy people continue to live much as they used to. 鈥淭he main concern is the destructive effect of lockdown and restrictions,鈥� says Gupta.
Although the letter doesn鈥檛 mention the term 鈥渉erd immunity鈥�, this is what the writers consider the way forward, says Gupta. Allowing the virus to spread through a low-risk group is聽the quickest way to develop immunity in the population at large and will eventually provide protection for older and more vulnerable people, she says. Without restrictions, this could be achieved in around three months, says Gupta. 鈥淚鈥檝e been arguing that we build up immunity in people who aren鈥檛 at risk.鈥�
Most scientists strongly disagree with this approach, though, arguing that it would still lead to a large number of deaths as聽well as putting more individuals at risk of 鈥渓ong covid鈥�, in which people continue to experience ill聽effects long after the virus has left their system. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a huge amount of evidence this is not going to work,鈥� says Stephen Griffin at the University of Leeds, UK. For a start, most scientists believe that herd immunity is far from having been reached even in聽regions hard hit by the virus.
While the threshold for herd immunity is debated, estimates suggest that about 60 to 70 per cent of people would need to be immune to the coronavirus to stop its spread. But studies suggest that only 10 to 20 per cent of people in London and Madrid, for example, have antibodies to it.
Gupta and others argue that this might already be enough for herd immunity, but they represent a minority among scientists. They also point out that, even without antibodies from being exposed to the coronavirus, some individuals will have immune responses that聽protect them from it. But it聽is聽unclear how many will have聽such responses and how effective they might be. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 even know if herd immunity is possible,鈥� says Christina Pagel at聽University College London.
The ethics and practicalities of聽shielding a significant chunk of the population are also a concern. 鈥淭hose people need to be cared for, have families and are working,鈥� says Griffin. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not feasible.鈥�
So how do we curb a second spike in infections? Sticking with measures like social distancing, hand washing, mask wearing and avoiding indoor and crowded places can help. Controlling the spread of the virus doesn鈥檛 have to involve lockdowns, says Pagel. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about suppression through test and trace,鈥� she says. 鈥淐ountries that do that can open everything.鈥�
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