The UK faces a 鈥渧ery difficult problem鈥� of rising covid-19 deaths and cases if it does not change course, chief medical officer for England Chris Whitty has warned.
The epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days in the UK, chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance told a televised briefing today. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no doubt we are in a situation where the numbers are increasing,鈥� he said, referring to several sets of data, including an Office for National Statistics study which suggests around 6000 people a day are currently being infected.
If growth continues unchecked, he said one scenario is that we could see 50,000 cases a day by mid-October, leading to 200-plus deaths a day by mid-November. Less than 8 per cent of people have likely been infected so far, Whitty said, meaning most people are still vulnerable.
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Localised outbreaks are growing, and the arrival of autumn is likely to make covid-19 worse, Whitty said. 鈥淲e have in a bad sense, literally turned a corner.鈥� Controlling the virus鈥檚 spread should be seen as a 鈥渟ix-month problem鈥�, he added.
The account from two of the UK鈥檚 top scientific advisers on the epidemic comes a day before prime minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce new restrictions. Their exact nature is still being debated within government, but .
Whitty directly addressed the political balancing act the government faces on public health and economic concerns. 鈥淢inisters making decisions, and all of society, we have to walk this very difficult balance. If we do too little, this virus will go out of control and we will get significant numbers of increase, both indirect and direct deaths.
鈥淏ut if we go too far the other way, we can cause damage to the economy, which can feed through to unemployment, deprivation, poverty, which can have long-term health effects,鈥� he said.
The briefing also stressed the need for people to follow official guidance, and for everyone to act. 鈥淵ou cannot, in a epidemic, just take your own risk. Unfortunately, you are taking a risk on behalf of everybody else. It鈥檚 important we see this as something we have to do collectively,鈥� Whitty said. He added: 鈥淚f we do not change course we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem.鈥�
