The world鈥檚 richest countries are guilty of a myopic international response to the coronavirus crisis that will hurt the world鈥檚 poorest people and the global fight against the disease, warns David Miliband, CEO of the US-based International Rescue Committee (IRC).
Miliband, a former UK politician and foreign secretary, says there聽is聽still time to stop human suffering in the world鈥檚 most fragile countries, by increasing handwashing, fever testing and building isolation centres.
A report by the IRC estimates that in a worst-case scenario, more聽than 3聽million people will聽die聽from covid-19 and a billion聽would be infected across 34聽crisis-affected countries.
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The estimates, based on modelling done by Imperial College London, are likely to be聽conservative because they assume levels of healthcare that聽match those in China, which聽many of the countries don鈥檛聽have, says Miliband.
Three of the countries most at risk are Yemen, which already has the world鈥檚 worst humanitarian crisis, Nigeria, because it has the largest population in Africa, and Bangladesh, which is home to the biggest refugee camp, he says.
Sub-Saharan Africa is puzzling, Miliband says, because although little covid-19 testing has taken place in the region, health facilities run by the IRC there haven鈥檛 been overrun. That could be due to a younger population in the region. 鈥淒emography might be playing a part, but it might not. More likely is that the spread of the disease has not yet hit the full ramp-up, partly because many of the places聽we work are not as integrated into the global economy as New York or London.鈥�
The coming weeks will be critical, he says. On 4 May, Nigeria聽confirmed its highest daily聽number of covid-19 cases on聽the day it began to phase out lockdown measures.
鈥淥bviously, it鈥檚 very worrying if聽countries like Nigeria start relaxing their lockdowns at precisely the time when the disease might be spreading most聽strongly,鈥� says Miliband.
In many places in the world, he says, people are on an economic ledge without a safety net. 鈥淭he danger is if the health emergency doesn鈥檛 get you, the economic and聽social emergency does. The lesson of this crisis is we have to fill the hole. Universal healthcare has to go from a World Health Organization (WHO) ambition to something governments around the world really commit to.鈥�
Tackling the virus in the world鈥檚 most vulnerable countries isn鈥檛 just a moral argument, but a practical one of self-interest for high-income countries too, he argues: 鈥淭here will be no return to聽anything like economic or聽social normality until the disease is beaten everywhere.鈥�
However, richer governments have failed to support poorer ones聽with international aid on聽covid-19, he says.
鈥淯p to now, governments are being understandably focused on聽the home front, but myopic and neglecting the international front. That myopia is damaging. Damaging to the lives of people in聽the countries where we work, but also to the overall fight against聽the disease.鈥�
Citizens should urge leaders to聽heed the dangers of the inward-looking, nationalistic period after the first world war and take inspiration from the outward-looking, multilateral time after the second world war, says Miliband.
鈥淭here are plenty of 鈥榥ationalists鈥� willing to say the lesson of this disease is there鈥檚 too much global connection and we should crack down on refugees and immigrants. But actually that鈥檚 not the lesson,鈥� he says.
The IRC is about halfway to its聽goal of raising $30 million to help fragile countries during the pandemic. The group has had to adapt many of the other services it provides to people to avoid risk of covid-19 transmission. Education programmes, which are normally based on bringing children together, are using radio to reach people instead, for example.
Although the WHO鈥檚 actions haven鈥檛 been perfect, says Miliband, US president Donald Trump鈥檚 decision to halt US funding to the WHO while reviewing its handling of the coronavirus crisis was unhealthy and misguided. The danger is聽that聽there is a cost to the president鈥檚 review of the WHO, and 鈥渢hat price聽is paid by the most vulnerable people in the world鈥�.
Miliband says he is 鈥渙bviously very worried鈥� that more than 30,000 people have died in the UK,聽the highest level in Europe.
鈥溾�業f everything is going so well, why are so many people dying?鈥�, is聽the question in my mind. There are obviously very hard questions to ask about how we鈥檝e ended up in this situation,鈥� he says.
