New Zealand is tantalisingly close to wiping out covid-19, but does that mean life there will be able to go back to normal?
New Zealand was swift to respond to the coronavirus pandemic, introducing some of the strictest lockdown measures in the world on 25 March, when the country had recorded only 205 cases and no deaths.
Under the lockdown, schools, universities and almost all businesses were shut, people could only leave their homes for essential reasons like buying food, exercising or accessing medical care, and the nation’s borders were closed to travellers.
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These measures have been highly effective, with only 1489 covid-19 cases and 21 deaths recorded in New Zealand to date. Most infected people have now recovered, leaving just 134 active cases. Only one new case was recorded on 7 May and two the day before.
The lockdown was eased slightly on 27 April, allowing schools to reopen for some students, workplaces without face-to-face customers to reopen, and people to socialise within close family circles. The New Zealand government will decide whether to lift restrictions further on 11 May.
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Staying vigilant
Restrictions will need to be eased slowly and cautiously in case there are undetected covid-19 cases in the community that could rapidly spread if people are allowed to mix freely again, says Michael Baker at the University of Otago in New Zealand. “We don’t want to have to go in and out of lockdown, we want to come out of this in a virus-free New Zealand,” he says.
For the nation to feel confident that it has eliminated covid-19 altogether, says Baker, it will need to have 28 days – equivalent to two incubation cycles of the virus – of no new cases against a backdrop of widespread testing.
Even if this goal is attained, the country will still need to be hypervigilant about not letting the virus re-enter, for example, via airline and shipping crews delivering goods from overseas, he says.
New Zealand may escape a health disaster, but the economic impact will still make it difficult for life to return to normal, even when restrictions are lifted, says Martin Berka at Massey University in New Zealand. The government has already spent over NZ$10 billion on a wage subsidy scheme to keep people in their jobs during the lockdown, and two of the country’s biggest industries – tourism and the education of foreign students – have been shut down. “It’s going to hurt a lot,” he says.
Another adjustment will be not being able to travel overseas, which may be off limits until a vaccine becomes available, says Siouxsie Wiles at the University of Auckland in New Zealand. Australia and New Zealand have proposed allowing tourism between the two countries, as Australia also has low covid-19 numbers, but officials say this is a while off.
On the other hand, there may be some positive ways in which life will permanently change, says Wiles. “Before this whole thing, a lot of people were told they couldn’t work from home or online teaching couldn’t be done, but we’ve found out very quickly that they can,” she says. “If things like work and education become more flexible and equitable because of this, then not going back to normal might actually be for the best.”
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