The peak of the UK coronavirus epidemic now looks likely to arrive within a month, according to analysis by the government鈥檚 science advisers.
As of 9 am on 27 March, there were 14,579 confirmed covid-19 cases in the UK, among them prime minister Boris Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock. A total of 759 people have died.
With most people confined to their homes, the peak number of cases is now expected to occur between the next two to four weeks, followed by a slow decline.
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Although the government anticipates that some intensive care units will be overwhelmed, it believes an ongoing expansion of capacity in the National Health Service should enable the healthcare system to cope at a national level.
Overall, the expectation is that the country is still on course for what the UK鈥檚 chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, has would be a 鈥渉orrible鈥� but 鈥済ood鈥� outcome of fewer than 20,000 people dying. However, if people don鈥檛 comply with the restrictions in place, that figure is expected to be higher.
The UK government says it is ramping up testing for covid-19, but efforts are still far short of the high levels seen in Germany and South Korea. The UK expects to get to 10,000 tests a day by Monday, up from around 4000 a day in recent weeks.
Plans are under way for an industrial-scale factory to make test kits, to help expand testing beyond hospital patients to front-line NHS workers and eventually the wider public. The factory may consist of several facilities in different locations.
It remains unclear how and when stringent social distancing measures will begin to be relaxed or lifted. Scientific advisers to the UK government believe the risk of a second peak in cases after the one within a month is still an unknown, but the history of epidemics suggests a significant chance of a further coronavirus peak.
