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CLIMATE change is the greatest threat humanity faces 鈥� and we aren鈥檛 the only ones at risk. Global warming will harm millions of other species, including iconic endangered animals such as polar bears and tigers. Despite this, conservationists often don鈥檛 take climate change into account, meaning plans to preserve these species are doomed to fail.

鈥淚t鈥檚 astonishing,鈥� says Miguel Araujo at the National Museum of Natural History of Spain. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 really understand the lack of action.鈥�

The outlook for wildlife would be grim even if the world wasn鈥檛 warming. According to a major report last year, 1 million species could soon be wiped out 鈥� a sixth mass extinction. The main cause at present is the loss of habitat, but over this century the changing climate is expected to push ever more species over the brink.

鈥�1m
The number of species that may be wiped out within a few decades鈥�

A warming world poses numerous challenges to wildlife. For many plants and animals, their current habitats will simply get too hot. Lots are already moving to stay in their comfort zone. In the oceans, some organisms have shifted their ranges by hundreds of kilometres.

But on land there are few spaces left for animals to relocate to, and those that do exist are highly fragmented, which makes it very hard for wildlife to adapt, says Araujo. In polar regions, the loss of sea ice is posing problems for the polar bear and other animals.

At least one species has already been driven to extinction by climate change. Bramble Cay, a tiny, low-lying Australian island on the northern edge of the Great Barrier Reef, used to be home to a unique rodent called the Bramble Cay melomys. In 2016, a review found that the animals died out as rising sea levels led to the island being inundated during storms.

There had been a recovery plan for the species 鈥� but it stated that climate change was unlikely to have a major effect, says Lesley Hughes of Macquarie University in Sydney. She describes the lack of conservation preparedness for climate change as lamentable.

Such a disaster may already have been repeated (see 鈥�Blown away鈥�), and will certainly happen again on low-lying coasts and islands. Animals at risk include Bengal tigers clinging on in the mangrove swamps of the Sundarbans in Bangladesh. By 2070, .

It will be necessary to create new protected areas as the world warms and coasts flood, along with corridors that allow animals to move between such places. That is costly and isn鈥檛 being done in rich places like Europe, let alone in poorer countries such as Bangladesh, says Araujo.

Even plans to save high-profile species often fail to take warming into account. For instance, millions have been spent on attempts to save the Iberian lynx. It is now increasing in numbers, but efforts have focused on the southern part of the Iberian peninsula where conditions will become too dry for the cats during this century.

Population crash

鈥淚t鈥檚 inevitable that a population crash will happen unless they are able to move,鈥� says Araujo. The aim should be to reintroduce the cats in the north of the peninsula, where conditions will remain favourable, he says.

This is far from an isolated case. When Aimee Delach at conservation organisation Defenders of Wildlife, based in Washington DC, analysed official plans for saving 459 animals in the US that could soon go extinct, she found only 18 per cent of the strategies included actions specifically designed to compensate for climate change.

That is despite 60 per cent of the plans mentioning climate change as a threat. According to Delach鈥檚 analysis, warming is actually a threat to 99 per cent of the species.

The picture is similar elsewhere. Hughes and her colleague Malin Hoeppner . Just nine recommended any action to cope with a climate change-associated threat, despite climate change being regarded as a danger to 60 per cent of the species, they reported in 2018.

鈥淥ur results show a gulf between knowledge about climate change risk and recovery planning,鈥� they wrote.

Another study looked at approved plans for saving 24 threatened plants in Australia. Nathalie Butt at the University of Queensland and her colleagues found just 30 per cent included actions that are crucial for helping species cope with climate change, such as moving specimens to areas where the climate remains suitable.

What鈥檚 more, the researchers also concluded that 20 per cent of a further 1200 plants they looked at were at high risk of going extinct because of climate change. There are no plans at all for saving most of these species.

Why are so many conservation plans so woefully inadequate on the climate front? 鈥淚t鈥檚 a classic case of the 鈥榢nowing-doing鈥� gap,鈥� says Hughes. The reasons we may fail to act even when we know what needs to be done include a lack of resources, an inability to believe that things could get as bad as forecast, a reluctance to intervene and a focus on short-term threats such as invasive species, she says.

That said, there is also a limit to what can be done. In Queensland, for instance, many animals, including threatened lemuroid ringtail possums (once wrongly reported to already be extinct due to climate change), are moving to higher elevations to stay in the right climate zone. However, that process can鈥檛 continue indefinitely, as mountains only go so high.

If the planet keeps warming, entire habitats could disappear along with all the species that rely on them. The outlook for most coral reefs is bleak, and there are fears the entire Amazon rainforest could perish.

So limiting further warming is vital. For example, a recent study of emperor penguins in Antarctica concluded that if emissions keep rising, the birds could die out not long after 2100. If warming were limited to 2掳C, their numbers would fall by less than half.

Other types of interventions might be appropriate to save some species. In 2016, John Woinarski of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub at Australia鈥檚 National Environmental Science Program looked at why the Bramble Cay melomys and two other species, the Christmas Island pipistrelle and Christmas Island forest skink, had recently been lost.

鈥淚f Earth keeps warming, entire habitats could disappear along with all species that rely on them鈥�

One reason was the failure to establish a captive population as numbers fell. It might have been possible to release the animals on another island 鈥� an approach that has saved a bird called the Guam rail from extinction. Woinarski and his team have recommended such action for some threatened species. 鈥淯nfortunately, none of our recommendations have been enacted,鈥� says Woinarski. On the contrary, the Australian government is now reviewing its environmental law, with the aim of reducing 鈥済reen tape鈥�, he says.

Biologists did finally go to Bramble Cay in 2014 to try to catch some melomys, but they found none. It seems all too likely that history will soon repeat itself.

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